The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook Executive Summary Not Safe to Bet Artificial Intelligence ( AI) Fueled Exuberance Is Sustainable. Both the California and U.S. economies currently face significant headwinds.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2024-25 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2024 - Together, these scoring differences account for the roughly $27  billion difference in our office ’s accounting of the budget problem and the administration ’s scoring. While we would maintain that our approach more accurately reflects current law, these scoring differences do not reflect substantive differences in state ’s fiscal position.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4902

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - These challenges would not be short-lived either. After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - We understand that while the administration indicates it will provide this payment in the future—after the final calculation of the minimum funding requirement—it also has not scored this future obligation in its multiyear budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - After accounting for a 5.35 percent statutory cost ‑of ‑living adjustment (COLA), deposits into the Proposition 98 reserve, and various other adjustments, we estimate the Legislature has $9.5 billion in ongoing funds available for allocation in 2022 ‑23.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

The 2022-23 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit

Sep 30, 2022 - As a result, these types of tax refunds are scored as spending rather than revenue reductions. The spending plan includes $9.5  billion General Fund for a one-time payment, the Better for Families tax refund.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4631

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - Similarly, across the rest of the budget, we estimate the administration scores about $5 billion in other budget solutions as baseline changes. This includes, for example, $1.6 billion in spending delays for competitive transit grant funds, a change in the General Child Care budgeting methodology that results in nearly $900 million in savings over the budget window, and a change
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - As we discuss later in this brief, the May Revision maintains a cost ‑of ‑living adjustment (COLA) and other spending increases for schools and community colleges despite the drop in funding. Baseline Spending Higher by $12   Billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2024-25 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Dec 7, 2023 - Under our estimates, the state ’s required payments on infrastructure decline by billions of dollars, but because of the way these payments are scored, these changes have no impact on the budget ’s bottom line.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4819