California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - To do this, we add a stock market indicator to our forecast models alongside other the economic variables. The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Overview of American Rescue Plan: Implications for California [Publication Details]

Mar 18, 2021 - Presented to: Assembly Subcommittee No. 6 on Budget Process, Oversight and Program Evaluation Hon. Philip Y. Ting, Chair
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4405

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - San Quentin Capital Outlay Projects to Support Development of the California Model. On May 5, 2023, Governor Newsom established an advisory council to recommend changes to San Quentin State Prison in order to help develop the California Model, which is broadly focused on promoting a more rehabilitative and health ‑focused environment in California prisons.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788

The 2023-24 Budget: Considering Inflation's Effects on State Programs

Nov 16, 2022 - In the Department of Developmental Services (DDS), although the Legislature recently enacted a plan to support rate models developed in a 2019 study (and updated to 2021‑22 levels), under current law, providers would only receive rate adjustments based on future legislative decisions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4647

The 2022-23 Budget: State Appropriations Limit Implications

Mar 30, 2022 - Specifically, we modeled these variables (with transformations applied in some cases) using a multivariate normal distribution, with standard deviations and covariances set to match historical levels over the last 40 years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4583

The 2024-25 Budget: Proposition 2 Debt Payment Proposals

Mar 20, 2024 - As a result of this statute, the state regularl y contributes a percentage of pay above what is actuarially required and established by the CalPERS Board. In 2024 ‑25, the state ’s supplemental payment under this section ranges from 0.1  percent of pay for Miscellaneous employees to 1.65  percent of pay for employees in the Peace Officer and Firefighter pension and is expected to total less than $100  million General Fund.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4887

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - These models make a number of important assumptions. For example, we assume: The long ‑term trend of higher income growth among high ‑income Californians continues, resulting in faster growth in state revenues.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416

The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 27, 2021 - Bunche Center — Subject Matter Projects in learning loss mitigation — Faculty professional development and equal opportunity practices — UC San Francisco Memory and Aging Center Alba Lab — UC Los Angeles Latino Policy and Politics Initiative — UC ‑CSU Collaborative on Neurodiversity and Learning — UC Davis California Veterinary Emergency Team — UC San Diego cliff erosion research — UC San
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4448/1

The 2022-23 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2022 - This tuition plan generally pegs annual tuition increases to inflation, applies annual increases to all academic graduate students, and uses a cohort model in applying higher charges to incoming undergraduate students (with charges held flat for continuing undergraduate  students).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4492

The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 27, 2021 - The plan involves phasing in the full implementation of the study’s recommended rate models over a five‑year period—with a General Fund funding level of $89.9 million in 2021‑22 that ramps up to $1.2 billion in 2025‑26 and ongoing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4448