California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

CalFacts 2024 [Publication Details]

Dec 2, 2024 - CalFacts presents a wide range of facts and trends about the state's economy, finances, and programs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4942

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - On a net basis, these items slightly improve the budget’s bottom line. Neither our November estimates nor the administration ’s estimates included any costs associated with the devastating wildfires in Southern California, as both were developed before those wildfires began.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

The 2022-23 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - Significant Underlying Net Cost Growth Underlying Net Cost Growth Averaging Around $900 Million Annually Throughout the Forecast Window. Underlying net cost growth reflects the fiscal impact of changes in the Medi ‑Cal caseload and per ‑enrollee costs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4474

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - Safety Net Reserve. The Governor also proposes withdrawing the entire balance of the Safety Net Reserve—$900 million. Withdrawing the entire balance of the Safety Net Reserve may not be consistent with legislative intent.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2024-25 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2024 - Safety Net Reserve . Similar to January, the Governor also proposes withdrawing the entire balance of the Safety Net Reserve —$900  million. The Safety Net Reserve was designed to help cover costs of increasing caseload in Medi-Cal and the California Work Opportunity and Responsibility to Kids program in the event of an economic downturn.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4902

The 2024-25 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Dec 7, 2023 - For example, in 2020 ‑21, the state temporarily suspended net operating loss (NOL) deductions, preventing corporations with net income over $1  million from using NOLs. The state also limited businesses from claiming more than $5  million in tax credits.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4819

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - On  net, our assessment of the budget condition finds the state would have a small deficit of $2  billion. Given the size and unpredictability of the state budget, we view this to mean the budget is roughly balanced.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939