California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - During the special session, the Legislature added Control Sections 90.00 and 90.01 to the 2024 ‑25 Budget Act providing up to $2.5  billion one ‑time for response and recovery costs related to the January 2025 Southern California wildfires.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - As such, our independent fiscal assessment underlies the Legislature ’s ability to assert an informed check on the executive branch, making any added complexity from diverging estimates a worthwhile trade-off.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2025 - While the majority of those deficits have been solved using spending reductions, a non-negligible share of the solutions have relied on budgetary borrowing. Some of this borrowing is similar to the measures used during the Great Recession —collectively previously referred to as the state ’s “wall of debt, ” which was defined as nonroutine borrowing mechanisms enacted to address persistent deficits.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5052

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Finally, although we have not previously recommended the Leg islature take decisive action to address the structural deficits, the state ’s persistent fiscal imbalance and the added downside risks —particularly from potential federal actions —suggest a need for a more proactive approach.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Outside of government and health care, the state has added no jobs in a year and a half. Similarly, the number of Californians who are unemployed is 25  percent higher than during the strong labor markets of 2019 and 2022.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - The 2022 ‑23 budget package provided $1.3   billion one ‑time non ‑Proposition   98 General Fund to cover the state share for new construction and modernization projects under the School Facility Program (SFP).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788

The 2022-23 Budget: State Appropriations Limit Implications

Mar 30, 2022 - Our analysis does not include variation in some parameters, such as non‑Proposition 98 spending, non‑tax revenue, or state appropriations limit (SAL) exclusions. These parameters reflect the policy choices of the Governor’s budget and therefore leaving them fixed reflects the best estimate of the state’s budget position given those policies.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4583

The 2022-23 Budget: Initial Comments on the State Appropriations Limit Proposal

Feb 4, 2022 - Moreover, regardless of how the Legislature wishes to meet the SAL ’s requirements, there likely will be significantly less funding available for non ‑excluded purposes. As such, we recommend the Legislature determine its priorities for non ‑excluded spending.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4515

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Sep 6, 2024 - These changes have the cumulative effect of lowering planned non ‑Proposition  98 General Fund spending for these packages by roughly $6.4  billion across the six ‑year period spanning 2021 ‑22 through 2026 ‑27.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4922