Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - For example, in 2018 ‑19, the Legislature created the Budget Deficit Savings Account —which was used to temporarily hold a $2.6  billion optional deposit into the BSA —and the Safety Net Reserve —a reserve specifically dedicated to CalWORKs and Medi ‑Cal.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - For example, we recommend the Legislature: Do Not Suspend the $3  Billion True Up Into the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). The Governor ’s budget proposes suspending a roughly $3  billion true-up deposit that otherwise would be required in 2025-26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - Since 2018, the Governor also declared states of emergency related to various wildfires. For example, the Governor declared a state of emergency related to the Camp wildfire on November 8, 2018, and related to the LNU Lightning Complex and other wildfires burning statewide on August  18, 2020.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - To do this, we add a stock market indicator to our forecast models alongside other the economic variables. The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - When cost changes do not occur automatically under current policy, we classify them as either budget solutions or discretionary augmentations. Budget Package Addressed a Nearly $15   Billion Budget Problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2023-24 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 15, 2023 - The 2018‑19 budget created the Safety Net Reserve to set aside funds for future costs of two programs—CalWORKs and Medi‑Cal—in the event of a recession. Absent policy changes, these programs typically experience increased expenditures during a recession when unemployment increases and program caseloads rises.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4769

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - Finally, the Governor sets the balance of the Special Fund for Economic Uncertainties to $4.5   billion —somewhat higher than the level enacted by recent budgets. Revenue Estimates Reasonable, but Risks Must Be Kept in Focus.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

The 2024-25 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2024 - Finally, given that our revenue forecast is somewhat below the administration ’s forecast, we would suggest the Legislature consider whether or not it is comfortable with this downside risk to the state ’s budget picture.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4902

Flexible Funding to California in the American Rescue Plan

Mar 23, 2021 - The state is not expected to experience a reduction in General Fund revenue in 2020-21 or 2021-22 compared to 2018-19 (the baseline revenue year in the ARP). Specifically, General Fund revenues (excluding constitutional reserve deposits) were $143  billion in 2018-19, while comparable revenues for 2020-21 and 2021-22 currently are estimated to be $158  billion and $161  billion, respectively.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4407

The 2022-23 Budget: State Appropriations Limit Implications

Mar 30, 2022 - (As of 2018 ‑19, cities and counties had over $150  billion in collective room under their limits. As a result, changing this definition is unlikely to result in very many local governments exceeding their limits.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4583