Cap-And-Trade Auction Update and GGRF Projections

Dec 6, 2021 - Drop to Price Floor. In this scenario, we assume prices drop to the floor beginning in February 2022 and remain there through 2022 ‑23. These prices would result in GGRF revenues totaling $3.7  billion in 2021 ‑22 and $2.7  billion in 2022 ‑23.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4480

The 2022-23 Budget: Cap-and-Trade Expenditure Plan

Jan 25, 2022 - As shown in Figure 2, the administration’s revenue assumptions in both 2021‑22 and 2022‑23 are slightly below our low revenue scenario, where we assume all allowances sell at the floor price. Although the administration also assumes that all allowances will sell at the floor price, its estimates of the number of allowances offered and the level of the floor price are slightly lower than ours.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4496

May 2021 Cap-and-Trade Auction Update [EconTax Blog]

May 28, 2021 - The May prices were also more than $1 above the auction floor price established by CARB ($17.71 for both vintages). Auction Revenue $337 Million Higher Than Governor ’s May Revision Assumes. Auction revenue is deposited in the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (GGRF).
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/659

The 2026-27 Budget: Cap-and-Invest Expenditure Plan

Feb 10, 2026 - The 2026-27 Budget: Cap-and-Invest Expenditure Plan $4,066 $4,221 a Revenue estimates assume allowances will sell at the same average premium above the price floor as has been the case for the last four quarters with fully subscribed auctions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5114

Overview of New Updates to the Cap-and-Invest Program

Dec 9, 2025 - Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, the program ’s impacts on GHG reductions and consumer costs will be heavily dependent on CARB ’s forthcoming decisions, including the  following: Price Ceiling and Floor.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5097

The 2022-23 Budget: Cap-and-Trade Revenue Update

Apr 29, 2022 - In our January analysis, The 2022-23 Budget: Cap-and-Trade Expenditure Plan , we identified different cap-and-trade auction revenue scenarios, including a “base” revenue scenario where allowance prices remain relatively stable and a low revenue scenario where allowances prices drop to the floor.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4591

August 2021 Cap-and-Trade Auction Update [EconTax Blog]

Aug 26, 2021 - The August prices were also more than $5.50 above the auction floor price established by CARB ($17.71 for both vintages). The revenue in both May and August were also significantly higher than prior auctions because each auction offered (and sold) about 12 million state-owned allowances that previously went unsold in the May 2020 auction.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/690

February 2021 Cap-and-Trade Auction Update [EconTax Blog]

Feb 25, 2021 - Allowances sold at slightly higher prices ($17.80 for 2021 vintage allowances and $18.01 for 2024 vintage allowances) than the auction floor price established by CARB ($17.71). Auction Revenue $117 Million Higher Than Governor ’s Budget Assumes.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/630

Assessing California’s Climate Policies—Cap-and-Trade Reauthorization

May 7, 2025 - (This estimate is based on allowance scenarios CARB has identified as part of its forthcoming rulemaking and assumes that allowance prices remain between the current price floor and ceiling, adjusted by 5  percent annually, consistent with current CARB regulations.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5042

The 2024-25 Budget: Cap-and-Trade Expenditure Plan

Feb 20, 2024 - Prior to spring 2023, the administration based its estimates on an assumption that all cap ‑and ‑trade allowances would sell at the auction floor price. This methodology resulted in DOF regularly underestimating revenues quite notably, as allowances have sold well above the floor price for the last several years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4847