California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Figure 3 General Fund Condition Under Fiscal Outlook (In Millions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 2 Proposals

Apr 26, 2021 - Under the administration ’s revenue assumptions, the state would need to make an initial deposit of $3  billion for 2020 ‑21. This is largely the result of the administration ’s estimate of capital gains revenues, as discussed earlier.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4418

The 2021-22 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2021 - Other Major Adjustments Reduce Costs by $3  Billion. In addition to revenues and constitutional requirements, other budgetary costs are, on net, lower by $3  billion compared to January. This relatively small number obscures many billions of dollars in budgetary changes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4432

The 2022-23 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit

Sep 30, 2022 - The final budget package does not reflect excess revenues across 2020-21 and 2021-22, nor does it include any unaddressed SAL requirements for 2022-23. In particular, as of July 2022, the administration estimates 2020-21 ended with appropriations subject to the limit above the limit by $16  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4631

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Revenues increased by nearly 30 percent in 2020-21 and another 20 percent in 2021-22. In the course of allocating the historically large surpluses generated by the revenue surge, General Fund spending increased commensurately.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - As shown in Figure 3 , the balance of the state ’s constitutional reserve, the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA), would grow to about 10 percent of General Fund revenues and transfers ($21 billion) under our revenue estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 27, 2021 - There are common provisions among all of the agreements that include: Ending Personal Leave Program (PLP) 2020. The agreements ended PLP 2020. As such, employees no longer ( 1) h ave their pay reduced or ( 2) r eceive PLP 2020 l eave each month.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4448

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Suspension Proposal

Jan 29, 2021 - Figure 3 General Fund Cost of Rejecting Governor ’s Proposal (In Millions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4328

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - The state ’s appropriations subject to the limit fell substantially during the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s and again during the Great Recession due to the significant decline in state revenues during those downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416