California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - As we described in our November Fiscal Outlook , the recent stronger-than-expected revenue trends are almost entirely explained by the personal income tax (PIT), which has seen double digit growth this year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2022-23 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Sep 27, 2022 - A total of 80  percent of the revenue from this tax will go to the counties where lithium extraction occurs, while the other 20  percent will go to the Salton Sea Restoration Fund. The budget package also prohibits local governments from levying excise taxes on lithium extraction or storage.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4626

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - Figure  1 shows the relative size and expected growth rates of major General Fund programs. Larger bubbles reflect higher levels of spending and bubbles farther to the right reflect higher rates of expected growth.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983

The 2025-26 Budget: California Spending Plan Series [Publication Details]

Oct 16, 2025 - The 2025-26 Budget: California Spending Plan Series [Publication Details] Translate Our Website This Google ™ translation feature provided on the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) website is for informational purposes only.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5105

The 2018-19 Budget: California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 2, 2018 - Additionally, from this ongoing amount, the budget sets aside $1. 3  m illion in 2018 ‑ 19 t o study the feasibility of levying an assessment to support flood management activities within the Sacramento ‑San Joaquin Drainage District.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3870/9

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - In 1994, the Legislature helped state officials sell a series of RAWs to investors by agreeing in law to automatically reduce most categories of expenditures if cash flow projections showed that timely payment of RAWs was threatened.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

Taking Stock of California’s Recession Readiness

Feb 12, 2020 - This analysis illustrated how evaluating the state’s fiscal structure under a range of stress scenarios can serve as a useful gauge of its progress toward recession preparedness. The findings should also send a cautionary message, however, against declaring mission accomplished based on a fiscal modeling exercise showing that the state can withstand a relatively mild downturn.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4156

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Over the coming months, if California ’s labor market and consumers begin to show signs of a broadening recovery, the state ’s fiscal position is likely to be on better footing. It remains to be seen whether this will occur, but there are some conceivable paths toward broader improvements.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - Consequently, setting the level of reserves is one of the Legislature’s most important decisions as it crafts the annual state budget. There is no such thing as an objectively “right” level of budget reserves, so this report provides a framework, with a set of factors, that the Legislature can use to determine its target.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - None of these levels—both on the revenue and spending side—are consistent with shortfalls seen during recessions. Because Recent Budgets Focused on One ‑Time and Temporary Spending, Ongoing Spending Level Is Still Sustainable.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687