Fiscal Outlook Addendum: CalPERS

Nov 18, 2015 - By rejecting the faster shift to a 6.5 percent discount rate, the CalPERS action mitigates some of the near-term budget risk for retirement funding we discuss in today 's Fiscal Outlook . As we state in the Fiscal Outlook (p. 44 of the pdf version), the plan adopted today by the CalPERS board "would not necessarily increase costs above our assumptions between now and 2019-20 " because it changes the system 's discount rates so gradually.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3308

The 2020-21 Budget: California's Spring Fiscal Outlook

May 8, 2020 - Eliminate Cost ‑of ‑Living Adjustments (COLAs). Our estimates of the budget problem assume the state provides inflation ‑related cost increases in order to maintain current service levels, although those increases are not necessarily required under current law or policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4228

The 2019-20 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - For retiree health, these increases reflect rising health premiums and the fact that state retirees are living longer in retirement. In ‑Home Supportive Services (IHSS). The IHSS program accounts for about 3  p ercent of General Fund costs today, but over the outlook period is responsible for 10  p ercent of total growth.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3896

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - As a result, associated spending is likely to be higher in the out ‑years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - As shown in Figure  1 , many signs of an overly exuberant stock market are present today: measures of whether stocks are “expensive ” are at historically high levels, investors are borrowing more to buy stocks, and households are more invested in the stock market than they have been in at least 70  years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2024-25 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2024 - By pulling back substantially on one-time and temporary spending, as well as making some ongoing reductions, the Governor ’s May Revision shrinks the state ’s projected deficits from around $30  billion (our December 2023 estimates) to an average of less than $10  billion (our estimates today).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4907

The 2019-20 Budget: Proposition 98 Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - Covering Statutory Cost ‑of ‑Living Adjustment Estimated to Cost $2.3   Billion. When the minimum guarantee is growing, the state typically provides a statutory cost ‑of ‑living adjustment (COLA) for certain school and community college programs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3897

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - Today: A Dramatic Improvement in California’s Cash Situation The state ’s cash situation today is dramatically different. As Figure   5 above showed, after decades of issuing RANs nearly every year, the state has not issued a RAN since 2014.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

An Extraordinary Moment in California's Fiscal History

Apr 11, 2019 - On the other hand, several highly anticipated initial public offerings could result in higher than previously anticipated personal income in the state which could give rise to an even larger surplus.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4003

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - The floods resulted in disaster declarations in 48 c ounties and forced more than 120,000 from their homes. After federal reimbursements, these floods led to nearly $ 200  m illion in state costs (over $ 300  m illion in today ’s dollars).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769