The 2022-23 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2022 - Our office ’s expenditure estimates account for inflation when cost ‑of ‑living adjustments are required by law and in areas where the state typically provides these adjustments, for example, in employee compensation.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4602

The 2020-21 Budget: Structuring the Budget

Feb 10, 2020 - Managed Care Organization (MCO) Tax Approved. After enacting the 2019 ‑ 20 b udget in June, the Legislature reauthorized the MCO tax in September. The MCO tax generates General Fund benefit by taxing enrollment in MCOs and using that revenue to offset General Fund costs in Medi ‑Cal.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4150

Despite Fiscal Forecasting Uncertainties, Multiyear Budget Planning Essential

May 27, 2021 - Prudence dictates that only when baseline projections show operating surpluses (annual revenues exceeding expenditures) can new ongoing commitments or tax reductions be considered. Conversely, if projections indicate a looming structural deficit, the estimates are helpful in functioning as an early warning system.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4443

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version) Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version) Appendix 4: Large One-Time and Temporary Augmentations Transportation Appendix 4, Figure 1 Remaining Large One ‑Time and Temporary Augmentations From the 2021 ‑22 and 2022 ‑23 Budget Packages: Business and Labor General Fund (In millions) Begin new information technology overhaul
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788/4

Tempered Expectations

Dec 9, 2019 - General Fund reliance on the personal income tax —and thus on capital gains-related income taxes in particular —has increased. Consequently, from a fiscal standpoint, the state could see revenue shortfalls commensurate with or greater than past recessions, especially if it were accompanied by a stock market correction.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4122

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - The state could reform th e underlying tax structure to make it less volatile, which nearly certainly would involve reducing tax rates for higher ‑income earners. Or, the state could address volatility by building reserves —funds that can be saved during upswings and spent during downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 10, 2021 - The administration estimates direct COVID-19 expenditures, which we do not consider discretionary, are higher by $4.4  billion compared to the budget act assumption. (We define direct COVID-19 expenditures to include expenses for testing, contact tracing, and vaccine distribution.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4309

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook [Publication Details]

Nov 16, 2022 - Our analysis relies on specific assumptions about the future of the state economy, its revenues, and its expenditures. Consequently, our estimates are not definitive, but rather reflect our best guidance to the Legislature based on our professional assessments as of November 2022.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4646

Taking Stock of California’s Recession Readiness

Feb 12, 2020 - The state ’s operating position, which refers to its annual revenues relative to expenditures, also influences its fiscal resilience. When multiyear estimates show that revenues will exceed expenditures on a recurring basis, there is an operating surplus (when annual expenditures exceed ongoing revenues, there is an operating deficit).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4156

The 2020-21 Budget: California's Spring Fiscal Outlook

May 8, 2020 - First, reserves will reduce the need for expenditure reductions or revenue increases —every dollar of reserves held today is a dollar in one ‑time programmatic cuts that can be avoided. Second, reserves allow the state to phase in reductions to expenditures more slowly, reducing their potential impact during the most acute period of the public health and economic crisis.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4228