December 16, 2020
November revenue collections from the state’s three largest taxes—the personal income tax, corporation tax, and sales tax—were ahead of budget projections by $2.4 billion (33 percent). Tax collections have been coming in well ahead of projections for several months. As a result, total collections for 2020-21 are $13.8 billion (24 percent) ahead of budget expectations. Income tax withholding and sales tax receipts continue to be the largest sources of better-than-expected collections.
Another contributor to strong collections is that corporation tax refunds were almost $400 million below expectations over the last two months. Looking at preliminary data, however, suggests that this pattern may be reversing. Refunds between December 1st and 15th are about $180 million higher than the same period in 2019.