State Budget Condition Publications

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Handout

Overview of the Legislature’s 2020-21 Budget Package

June 12, 2020 - Presented to the Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Committee

Handout

Overview of the Legislature's 2020-21 Budget Package

June 4, 2020 - Presented to the Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 6 on Budget Process Oversight and Program Evaluation

Handout

Overview of the Senate 2020-21 Budget Package

May 28, 2020 - Presented to the Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Committee

Handout

Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 26, 2020 - Presented to the Assembly Committee of the Whole

Handout

May Revision Control Section Proposals

May 22, 2020 - Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 6 on Budget Process Oversight and Program Evaluation Hon. Philip Y. Ting, Chair

Handout

Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 18, 2020 - Presented to the Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Committee

Report

The 2020-21 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2020 - On May 14, 2020, Governor Newsom presented a revised state budget proposal to the Legislature. In this post, we provide an overview of the overall budget condition under the May Revision estimates and proposals; the major actions the Governor took to close an estimated $54 billion budget gap; and give our initial comments on this budget package.

Report

The 2020-21 Budget: California's Spring Fiscal Outlook

May 8, 2020 - This report provides an update on the budget’s condition in light of the public health emergency and economic downturn associated with the coronavirus disease 2019. Our outlook presents two potential scenarios—a somewhat optimistic “U-shaped” recession and a somewhat pessimistic “L-shaped” recession—and assumes a baseline level of expenditures. Under these two scenarios, the state would have to address an $18 billion or $31 billion budget problem. The state’s newly emergent fiscal challenges are likely to extend well beyond the end of the public health crisis. Under both of our economic scenarios, budget deficits persist until at least 2023-24 with multiyear deficits summing to $64 billion in the U-shaped recession and $126 billion in the L-shaped recession.

Video: Press Availability Video Call

Post

Federal COVID-19-Related Funding to California

April 28, 2020 - This post summarizes recent federal legislative and other actions to allocate funding to California and other states in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Figures in this post summarize—as comprehensively as was feasible—the amount of funding that we expect to flow to governments and other public entities in California from the federal government. We also describe the major COVID-19-related federal funding that we expect to flow directly to private Californian entities, such as individuals and businesses.

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State Funding Actions Related to COVID-19

April 20, 2020 - This post summarizes recent legislative and administrative action to allocate state funds to respond to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) public health emergency. These activities are ongoing. We plan to update this post periodically to reflect new information and actions.

Handout

Preliminary Assessment of the Economic Impact of COVID-19

April 16, 2020 - Presented to: Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Committee

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COVID-19 and California’s Evolving Fiscal Outlook

March 18, 2020 - In this installment of Fiscal Perspectives, Legislative Analyst Gabriel Petek offers some initial observations on the recent volatility in financial markets, palpably sharp reduction in economic activity, and the state’s fiscal position at the outset of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Report

The 2020-21 Budget: Proposition 2 Debt Payment Proposals

March 10, 2020 - Over the next decade, the state will be required to allocate an additional $12 billion to $21 billion to accelerate the pay down of state retirement liabilities under the provisions of Proposition 2 (2014). This represents a key and unique opportunity for the state. The Governor offers one strategy to prioritize these funds over the next few years. Notably, the Governor focuses on the state’s share of the unfunded liability for teachers’ pensions. While we agree this focus makes sense, the amounts the Governor proposes dedicating to this purpose are not connected to the specific actuarial needs of the teachers’ pension system. In this report, we present a method the Legislature could use to tie these payments to the system’s actual needs, which would better target the funding.

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Taking Stock of California’s Recession Readiness

February 12, 2020 - In this installment of Fiscal Perspectives, Legislative Analyst Gabriel Petek discusses why, even with high budget reserve balances, it is prudent for the Legislature to continue assessing and strengthening the state’s fiscal capacity. The post also discusses how maintaining an operating surplus in the state’s multiyear budget plan can supplement reserves as an instrument of fiscal resilience. Petek makes the case that there is a particularly strong argument for doing so in the context of a mature economic expansion.

Report

The 2020-21 Budget: Structuring the Budget

February 10, 2020 - California has made significant progress in recent years to make its budget more resilient. Yet the process of achieving resilience can never be considered finished. This report lays out a framework for evaluating the budget’s structure using two key tools: reserves and operating surpluses. Using this framework, we evaluate the Governor’s proposed 2020-21 budget structure. We find that building more reserves or preserving a larger operating surplus would be prudent.

State Budget Condition Staff

Ann Hollingshead
(916) 319-8305
State Budget and Federal Funding
 
Carolyn Chu
(916) 319-8326
Chief Deputy Legislative Analyst