State Budget Condition Publications

Structuring the 2019-20 Budget: Reserves, Debt, and Liabilities

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March 5, 2019 - Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 4 on State Administration

Structuring the 2019-20 Budget: Reserves, Debt and Liabilities

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February 7, 2019 - Presented to: Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Committee

The 2019-20 Budget: Structuring the Budget: Reserves, Debt and Liabilities

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February 5, 2019 - This report considers the overall structure of the Governor’s budget to evaluate how well it prepares the state to address a future budget problem. We begin with background to explain the state budget structure, budget problems, and options for addressing budget problems. We also provide background on the state’s existing reserves and debts and liabilities. We then present some key considerations as the Legislature considers its overall budget structure. Finally, we present and assess each of the Governor’s major budget reserve and debt and liability proposals and offer some alternatives for legislative consideration.

2/5/19: Corrected total of state spending deferrals in Figure 5.

Overview of the Governor’s Budget

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January 29, 2019 - Presented to: Assembly Committee on Budget

Overview of the Governor’s Budget

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January 17, 2019 - Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Committee

The 2019-20 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

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January 14, 2019 - This report presents our office’s initial assessment of the Governor’s Budget. The budget’s position continues to be positive. With $20.6 billion in discretionary resources available, the Governor’s budget proposal reflects a budget situation that is even better than the one our office estimated in the November Fiscal Outlook. The Governor’s Budget allocates nearly half of these discretionary resources to repaying state liabilities. Then, the Governor allocates $5.1 billion to one-time programmatic spending, $3 billion to reserves, and $2.7 billion to ongoing spending. Although the Governor’s allocation to discretionary reserves represents a smaller share of resources than recent budgets, the Governor’s decision to use a significant share of resources to pay down state debts is prudent. The Governor’s ongoing spending proposal is roughly in line with our November estimate of the ongoing capacity of the budget under an economic growth scenario. This was just one scenario, however. Recent financial market volatility indicates revenues could be somewhat lower than either we or the administration estimated.

The 2019-20 Budget

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January 1, 2019 - An index of publications on the 2019-20 budget.

The Great Recession and California's Recovery

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December 13, 2018 - Nearly ten years ago today, Governor Schwarzenegger's proposed budget for the upcoming fiscal year projected a $42 billion deficit. This shortfall was stunning, but in fact, turned out to be optimistic. In the months that followed, the Governor released three more budget projections, each one addressing even larger shortfalls. California was called "ungovernable," "a wreck," and "a failed state."

Today, California's fiscal position is dramatically different. While the budget still faces challenges, the state has made undeniable progress: the Legislature has enacted budgets that consistently increased savings, addressed many of the state's outstanding debts, and most recently passed a budget with a higher level of reserves than the state has seen in decades. Few could have predicted this turnaround.

So how did the state achieve this feat? This visual guide to the Great Recession and California's recovery tells the story of the budget over the last ten years.

Cal Facts 2018

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December 6, 2018 - With a state as big, as populous, and as complex as California, quickly summarizing how its economy or state budget works is impossible. Instead, Cal Facts is a visual guide—using a variety of different charts—to the state's economy, revenues, and major program trends.

Evolution of the Balance of the Budget Stabilization Account

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November 14, 2018 - This post discusses the various types of deposits the Legislature has made into the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA) that now compose its balance. We also present our projections of the estimated balance in the BSA under our recently published report, The 2019-20 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook.

In addition to this report, you can find the main California's Fiscal Outlook report along with a collection of other fiscal outlook material on our fiscal outlook budget page.

Fiscal Outlook: In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS)

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November 14, 2018 - In this web post we discuss our near- and long-term costs projections for the In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS) Program and significant cost drivers and savings.

In addition to this report, you can find the main California's Fiscal Outlook report along with a collection of other fiscal outlook material on our fiscal outlook budget page.

Fiscal Outlook: Medi-Cal

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November 14, 2018 - This web post provides detail on our projections and assumptions related to General Fund spending in Medi-Cal for the years 2018-19 through 2022-23. In the near term, we project Medi-Cal spending to grow to $23.9 billion in 2019-20. Over the long term, we project General Fund spending in Medi-Cal to grow to up to around $28 billion.

In addition to this report, you can find the main California's Fiscal Outlook report along with a collection of other fiscal outlook material on our fiscal outlook budget page.

The 2019-20 Budget: Proposition 98 Outlook

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November 14, 2018 - In this report, we examine how the minimum guarantee might change over the next several years and discuss the factors likely to be driving those changes. We then examine key aspects of district budgets—focusing on the main cost pressures facing districts over the next several years.

In addition to this report, you can find the main California's Fiscal Outlook report along with a collection of other fiscal outlook material on our fiscal outlook budget page.

The 2019-20 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

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November 14, 2018 -

The budget is in remarkably good shape. Under our estimates of revenues and spending, the state’s constitutional reserve would reach $14.5 billion by the end of 2019-20. In addition, we project the Legislature will have nearly $15 billion in resources available to allocate in the 2019-20 budget process. The Legislature can use these funds to build more reserves or make new one-time and/or ongoing budget commitments.

The longer-term outlook for the state also is positive. Under our economic growth scenario, the state would have operating surpluses averaging around $4.5 billion per year (but declining over time). Under our recession scenario, the state would have enough reserves to cover a budget problem—provided the Legislature used all of the available resources in 2019-20 to build more reserves.

Along with the Fiscal Outlook, you can find a collection of other fiscal outlook material on our fiscal outlook budget page.

The 2018-19 Budget: California Spending Plan (Final Version)

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October 2, 2018 - Each year, our office publishes the California Spending Plan to summarize the annual state budget. This publication discusses the 2018‑19 Budget Act and other major budget actions approved in 2018. This version reflects all budgetary legislation related to the 2018-19 Budget Act.