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The 2022-23 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges


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The 2023-24 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges

November 16, 2022 - Each year, the state calculates a “minimum guarantee” for school and community college funding based upon a set of formulas established by Proposition 98 (1988). Based upon recent signs of weakness in the economy, we estimate the guarantee in 2023‑24 is $2.2 billion (2 percent) below the 2022‑23 enacted budget level. Despite this drop, $7.6 billion would be available to provide increases for school and community college programs. In 2023‑24, the available funding could cover a cost‑of‑living adjustment (COLA) of up to 8.38 percent, which is slightly below our estimate of the statutory rate (8.73 percent). Over the next several years, growth in the guarantee and required reserve withdrawals would be just enough to cover the statutory COLA. Given this relatively precarious balance, we outline a few ways the Legislature could create a larger cushion to protect against revenue declines in the future.

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The 2022-23 California Spending Plan: Proposition 98

October 24, 2022 - This post summarizes overall Proposition 98 funding and K-12 education spending in the 2022-23 budget package. It is part of our Spending Plan series, which contains posts focused on each major sector of the state budget.

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The 2022-23 Budget: Analysis of Major CCC Proposals

February 11, 2022 - This brief analyzes the Governor's major budget proposals for the California Community Colleges, with a focus on apportionments increases, enrollment, modifications to the Student Centered Funding Formula, part-time faculty health insurance, and deferred maintenance.

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[PDF] The 2020-21 Budget: The Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges

November 20, 2019 - This report examines how the Proposition 98 minimum guarantee might change over the coming years. The report has five parts. First, we explain the formulas that determine the minimum guarantee. We then explain how our estimates of Proposition 98 funding in 2018‑19 and 2019‑20 differ from the estimates included in the June 2019 budget plan. Next, we estimate the 2020‑21 guarantee. Fourth, we explain how the minimum guarantee could change through 2023‑24 under two possible economic scenarios. Finally, we identify the amount of funding that would be available for new spending commitments in the upcoming year and describe some issues for the Legislature to consider as it prepares to allocate this funding.

In addition to this report, you can find the main California's Fiscal Outlook report along with a collection of other fiscal outlook material on our fiscal outlook budget page.

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[PDF] The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of May Revision K-12 Education Proposals

May 18, 2021 - This handout analyzes the overall architecture of the Governor's May Revision plan for school funding, including major spending proposals and underlying estimates of the Proposition 98 minimum guarantee.

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The 2022-23 California Spending Plan: Higher Education

October 4, 2022 - This post summarizes the state’s 2022-23 spending package for higher education. It is part of our Spending Plan series. In this post, we provide a short overview of the state’s higher education spending package, then cover spending for the California Community Colleges (CCC), California State University (CSU), University of California (UC), student financial aid, student housing, and California State Library.

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The 2019-20 Budget: Proposition 98 Outlook

November 14, 2018 - In this report, we examine how the minimum guarantee might change over the next several years and discuss the factors likely to be driving those changes. We then examine key aspects of district budgets—focusing on the main cost pressures facing districts over the next several years.

In addition to this report, you can find the main California's Fiscal Outlook report along with a collection of other fiscal outlook material on our fiscal outlook budget page.

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[PDF] The 2021-22 Budget: The Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges

November 18, 2020 - This report provides our fiscal outlook for schools and community colleges. State budgeting for schools and the California Community Colleges is governed largely by Proposition 98. The measure establishes a minimum funding requirement for K‑14 education commonly known as the minimum guarantee. This report provides our estimate of the minimum guarantee for the upcoming budget cycle. (The 2021‑22 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook contains an abbreviated version of our Proposition 98 outlook, along with the outlook for other major programs in the state budget.)

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The 2022-23 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

January 13, 2022 - On January 10, 2022, Governor Newsom presented his proposed state budget to the Legislature. In this report, we provide a brief summary of the proposed budget based on our initial review. In the coming weeks, we will analyze the plan in more detail and release several additional budget analyses.

Update (1/21/22): Includes a corrected estimate of Governor’s Budget proposals that are excludable under the State Appropriations Limit (SAL).

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[PDF] The 2022-23 Budget: Local Control Funding Formula

January 28, 2022 - In his January budget, the Governor proposes to provide a 5.33 percent cost-of-living adjustment to the Local Control Funding Formula (LCFF) and change the formula to soften the impact of declining attendance on school districts. In this post, we provide background on LCFF, describe and assess the Governor’s proposals, and provide our recommendations to the Legislature.

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The 2021-22 Spending Plan: Higher Education

October 11, 2021 - This budget post summarizes the state’s 2021‑22 spending package for higher education. It is part of our Spending Plan series. In this post, we cover spending for the California Community Colleges (CCC), California State University (CSU), University of California (UC), student financial aid, California State Library, and certain initiatives that crosscut the education segments.

Correction (6/10/22): Totals for on-going and one-time UC core funding have been corrected.

Handout

[PDF] The 2022-23 Budget: Overview of May Revision K-12 Education Proposals

May 18, 2022 - This handout analyzes the overall structure of the Governor's May Revision plan for school funding, including an assessment of the major augmentations and the underlying estimates of the Proposition 98 minimum guarantee.

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[PDF] The 2022-23 Budget: Expanded Learning Programs

February 16, 2022 - In his January budget, the Governor proposes an additional $3.6 billion for the Expanded Learning Opportunities Program and $149 million for the state’s longstanding expanded learning programs. In this post, we provide background on the state’s expanded learning programs, describe and assess the Governor’s proposal, and provide our recommendations to the Legislature.