May 17, 2025 - On May 14, 2025, Governor Newsom presented a revised state budget proposal to the Legislature. This annual proposed revised budget is referred to as the May Revision. In this brief, we provide a summary of and comments on the Governor’s revised budget, focusing on Governor’s proposals for and the overall condition of the state General Fund—the budget’s main operating account.
May 23, 2021 - This report presents our office’s independent assessment of the condition of the state General Fund budget through 2024-25 assuming the economy continues to grow. While the state faces a historic surplus, a spending level beyond what is proposed by the Governor would require the Legislature to identify proposals to reject. Moreover, our analysis finds that the level of ongoing spending proposed by the Governor is only supportable with a revenue forecast that is more optimistic than the administration’s current estimates.
May 23, 2023 - This brief presents our office’s independent assessment of the condition of the state General Fund budget through 2026‑27 under our forecast of revenues and spending, assuming the Governor’s May Revision policies were adopted.
May 17, 2019 - This report presents our office’s independent assessment of the condition of the state General Fund budget through 2022-23 assuming the economy continues to grow and all of the Governor’s May Revision spending proposals are adopted.
May 19, 2003 - The May Revision adopts a multiyear approach to addressing the state's massive budget problem, relying more on borrowing and less on near-term spending reductions than the January proposal. Adoption of the plan would likely result in a precariously balanced 2003-04 budget, but would leave the state with a still-formidable structural imbalance between ongoing revenues and expenditures in the future. Primarily because of this imbalance, we believe that if the Governor's multiyear approach is adopted, it should include additional ongoing solutions beyond those proposed in the May Revision.
January 13, 2025 - Update (1/16/25): A set of tables detailing various solutions and proposals has been appended to the online version of this report. They are available using the HTML link above.
On January 10, 2025, Governor Newsom’s administration presented its proposed state budget to the California Legislature. In this report, we provide a brief summary of the Governor’s budget based on our initial review as of January 12. In the coming weeks, we will analyze the plan in more detail and release many additional issue-specific budget analyses. For those additional analyses, please see our budget page.
May 20, 2016 - This online post is our office’s multiyear outlook for California’s General Fund through 2019-20 based on current state law and policies, as modified by the Governor’s May Revision proposals. This is part of our response to the Governor’s 2016-17 May Revision. Our outlook estimates the state will end 2016-17 with $8.7 billion in total reserves. Over our outlook period, and assuming continued economic growth, we estimate the state’s budget has the capacity to pay for the Governor’s May Revision proposals over the period. After 2016-17, the state would have a few billion dollars available each year to build reserves or make additional commitments. Despite these budgetary surpluses, compared to other recent similar analyses, our outlook shows much smaller budget surpluses. Surpluses have declined largely as a result of new spending commitments by the state, including the increased state minimum wage. As a result, the state’s budget is now more vulnerable to a future economic downturn than it was last year. For this reason, we suggest the Legislature aim to pass a state budget with a robust level of total reserves this year.
May 27, 1994 - This year’s May Revision essentially represents a technical update to the January budget. It does not include any major new proposals. Furthermore, the Administration’s estimates of caseloads and its revenue outlook have changed only slightly since January, so that the May Revision changes are relatively small.
December 7, 2023 - Each year, our office publishes the Fiscal Outlook in anticipation of the upcoming budget season. The goal of this report is to give the Legislature our independent estimates and analysis of the state’s budget condition as lawmakers begin planning the 2024-25 budget.
May 17, 2024 - On May 14, 2024, Governor Newsom presented a revised state budget proposal to the Legislature. This annual proposed revised budget is referred to as the May Revision. In this brief, we provide a summary of and comments on the Governor’s revised budget, focusing on the overall condition and structure of the state General Fund—the budget’s main operating account.
September 6, 2024 - Each year, our office publishes the California Spending Plan to summarize the annual state budget. This publication provides an overview of the 2024‑25 Budget Act, gives a brief description of how the budget process unfolded, and then highlights major features of the budget approved by the Legislature and signed by the Governor. All figures in this publication reflect actions taken through early July 2024, but we have updated the narrative to reflect actions taken later in the legislative session.
February 24, 2025 - This post provides guidance to the Legislature for conducting fiscal oversight. As outlined in our November Fiscal Outlook, we advise the Legislature to use the 2025-26 budget process to conduct robust fiscal oversight of state programs. In particular, we advise the Legislature to put particular focus on programs and activities supported by the General Fund to help prepare for actions that might be needed to address expected deficits in the coming years.
November 14, 2007 - In order to balance the 2008–09 budget, the state will have to adopt nearly $10 billion in solutions. Addressing the state’s current budget problem is even more urgent because we forecast a continuing gap between revenues and expenditures. A plan to permanently address the state’s fiscal troubles must involve a substantial portion of ongoing solutions. This is not only because of the persistent operating deficits projected throughout the forecast, but also because of the downside risks inherent with the economy, General Fund revenue volatility, and a wide range of budgetary uncertainties. Making tough choices now will allow the state to move closer to putting its fiscal woes in the past.
May 21, 2009 - The Governor's estimate of a new $21 billion budget problem is reasonable. The May Revision proposals include major spending reductions and serious efforts for long–term state efficiencies and savings. By acting quickly and reducing reliance on some of the Governor’s riskiest proposals--such as financing $5.5 billion of the deficit by issuing revenue anticipation warrants--the Legislature can return the budget to balance, prevent another state cash crunch, and preserve core funding for what it deems to be California’s long–term priorities. To accomplish these goals, the Legislature now needs to cut lower–priority programs substantially or eliminate them. To address significant budget deficits forecast in future years, the Legislature also needs to begin work this year on measures that further improve the efficiency of state services for 2010–11 and beyond. (Note: the Appendix in the HTML version was corrected as of 2:30 p.m. on May 21, 2009.)
November 14, 2003 - According to our projections, the state is facing a year-end shortfall of $10.2 billion in 2004-05 assuming the vehicle license fee (VLF) rate increase remains in effect, and substantially more if the rate is rolled back and the state resumes backfill payments to localities. Over the longer term, absent corrective actions, the state faces annual current-law operating deficits that remain over $9 billion through the end of the forecast period—and $14 billion if the VLF rate is rolled back.
November 10, 2008 - We concur with the administration’s assessment that the state’s struggling economy signals a major reduction in expected revenues. Combined with rising state expenses, we project that the state will need $27.8 billion in budget solutions over the next 20 months. The state’s revenue collapse is so dramatic and the underlying economic factors are so weak that we forecast huge budget shortfalls through 2013‑14 absent corrective action. From 2010‑11 through 2013‑14, we project annual shortfalls that are consistently in the range of $22 billion.
May 19, 2008 - The state faces a remaining budget shortfall of $15 billion, after accounting for the $7 billion in solutions adopted as part of the special session. We have updated our LAO alternative budget, which remains balanced through our forecast period, to reflect the state’s worsening fiscal situation. Our plan includes a more responsible lottery securitization—resulting in a General Fund benefit of $5.6 billion over two years—with a dramatically reduced risk to education’s lottery funding. Finally, we offer some much simpler approaches to increasing the size of the state’s reserve in good fiscal times.