California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - One key difference between our office and the administration is that our economic scenario assumes notably higher wage and salary growth in 2018 and 2019. Figure 1 Comparing Recent California Economic Scenarios Percent Change Unless Indicated Target federal funds rate (percent) 1.6 S &P 500 (annual average) 2,612 73 61 a An economic growth scenario based on Moody ’s Analytics ’ April 2018 U.S.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - This year, for example, our outlook reflects our best estimates of the effects of H.R. 1: One Big Beautiful Bill Act on the state budget but does not make assumptions about future federal policy changes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2019-20 Budget: California Spending Plan—Debt Liabilities

Oct 17, 2019 - (We describe these payments in more detail in our post The 2019‑20 Spending Plan: Education .) Budgetary Borrowing The spending plan made significant progress in addressing remaining budgetary borrowing amounts that fall into three categories: (1)  deferrals, (2)  special fund loans, and (3)  settle up.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4106

The 2019-20 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 14, 2019 - The 2018 ‑ 19 b udget approved the first step of this plan by providing an across ‑the ‑board 10  p ercent grant increase effective April 1, 2019. The Governor ’s budget proposes to further increase CalWORKs grants by 13. 1  p ercent, which would raise grant levels to 50  p ercent of FPL for a family of three.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3916

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - The average daily balance of the PMIA was $97. 7  b illion for the second quarter of 2019, although it was $74. 1  b illion excluding local governments ’ funds. The balance of the PMIA has also grown remarkably in recent years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

The 2019-20 Budget: California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 17, 2019 - The spending plan includes $ 332  m illion General Fund in 2019 ‑ 20 t o increase the CalWORKs maximum grant levels, beginning October 1, 2019. (This amount corresponds to three ‑quarters of the full ‑year cost of the increase.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4083

Supplemental Report of the 2019-20 Budget Act [Publication Details]

Aug 2, 2019 - Supplemental Report of the 2019-20 Budget Act [Publication Details] Translate Our Website This Google ™ translation feature provided on the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) website is for informational purposes only.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4084

The 2019-20 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - Under our office ’s economic assumptions, revenues grow by $5. 1  b illion between 2018 ‑19 and 2019 ‑20. Transfers (which offset revenues) decline year over year, resulting in total growth in revenues and transfers of $7. 6  b illion overall.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3896