The 2026-27 Budget: Department of Developmental Services

Mar 13, 2026 - The department stated that its budget projections for 2026 ‑27 do not incorporate any potential added costs due to the changes in H.R 1. Will the department be able to determine whether its costs increase in the future due to H.R. 1?
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5157

The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Analysis

Mar 2, 2026 - One possible reason for our higher estimate is that our model reflects not only disenrollment among current enrollees, but also reduced enrollment flows over time and a persistent risk of disenrollment among eligible individuals due to added administrative burden.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5146

Mental Health Services Act: Revenue Volatility and the Governor’s Proposal to Reduce Allowable County Reserves

Jul 13, 2023 - One way to measure the variability in a data series is average deviation (AD). AD summarizes —for a given time period —how many percentage points the data in a series deviate from the average growth rate.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4780

Considering Medi-Cal in the Midst of a Changing Fiscal and Policy Landscape

Oct 24, 2025 - …But Potentially With Added Complexity. Adding more flexibilities also could come with the potential downside of more complexity for beneficiaries and counties. For example, exempting high unemployment counties from work requirements could create more volatility.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5083

The 2025-26 Budget: Understanding Recent Increases in the Medi-Cal Senior Caseload

Mar 6, 2025 - In the paragraphs that follow, we provide our analysis that results in ou r estimate of at least 165,000 seniors being added due to eligibility expansions since 2020. (As a consequence of this estimate, it follows naturally that we estimate up to 60,000  seniors being added due to the effects of continuous coverage, the unwinding, and unwinding flexibilities, for a total increase of 225,000 seniors due to policy changes.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5010

Building California’s Behavioral Health Infrastructure: Progress Update and Opportunities for the Proposition 1 Bond

Feb 5, 2025 - Strategies to do so have included expanding the behavioral health workforce; adding benefits and increasing rates in Medi ‑Cal; and increasing capacity through managed care plans, schools, and in other  settings.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4954

The 2020-21 May Revision: Recommend Reduction to Medi-Cal Caseload Costs

May 22, 2020 - The reason, as can be seen in the figure, is that childless adults have a projected General Fund cost per case that is less than one-tenth of that for seniors and persons with disabilities. In addition, we believe that the administration ’s families caseload is somewhat overstated.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4245

The 2021-22 Budget: Analysis of the Medi-Cal Budget

Feb 16, 2021 - Should caseload growth be closer to the average of what the state has seen under the pandemic so far —rather than somewhat higher than average monthly growth to date, as we assume in our model —General Fund costs could be even lower than we estimate.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4373

Climate Change Impacts Across California - Crosscutting Issues

Apr 5, 2022 - Costs for cities and counties might include adding drainage to roads to manage more intense rain events, or modifying water treatment plants located along the coast to accommodate higher sea levels. …And Private Residents and Businesses.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4575

Estimated Cost of Expanding Full-Scope Medi-Cal Coverage to All Otherwise-Eligible Californians Regardless of Immigration Status

May 5, 2021 - Were the Legislature to expand coverage, we project that much of the higher restricted-scope enrollment seen during the pandemic would apply to the new full-scope population and would continue for the most of calendar year 2022, after which enrollment would return to roughly pre-pandemic levels and trends.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4423