California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - One key difference between our office and the administration is that our economic scenario assumes notably higher wage and salary growth in 2018 and 2019. Figure 1 Comparing Recent California Economic Scenarios Percent Change Unless Indicated Target federal funds rate (percent) 1.6 S &P 500 (annual average) 2,612 73 61 a An economic growth scenario based on Moody ’s Analytics ’ April 2018 U.S.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - This year, for example, our outlook reflects our best estimates of the effects of H.R. 1: One Big Beautiful Bill Act on the state budget but does not make assumptions about future federal policy changes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2019-20 Budget: California Spending Plan—Debt Liabilities

Oct 17, 2019 - On an ongoing basis, the state ’s budget documents still reflected 12 months of payroll, but rather than reflecting payroll for June of the last month of the fiscal year, they reflect June of the previous fiscal year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4106

The 2019-20 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 14, 2019 - The 2018 ‑ 19 b udget approved the first step of this plan by providing an across ‑the ‑board 10  p ercent grant increase effective April 1, 2019. The Governor ’s budget proposes to further increase CalWORKs grants by 13. 1  p ercent, which would raise grant levels to 50  p ercent of FPL for a family of three.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3916

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - The average daily balance of the PMIA was $97. 7  b illion for the second quarter of 2019, although it was $74. 1  b illion excluding local governments ’ funds. The balance of the PMIA has also grown remarkably in recent years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

The 2020-21 Budget: Overview of the California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 5, 2020 - Each payment will equal 1. 5  p ercent of annual General Fund revenue and can be allocated for any school or community college purpose. These payments will continue until the state has paid $12. 4  b illion —the amount of funding schools and community colleges could have received under Proposition   98 i f state revenues had continued to grow.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4263

The 2019-20 Budget: California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 17, 2019 - The remaining one ‑time funds are for numerous other initiatives, including start ‑up funding for new extended education programs and a pilot program to test new K ‑12 special education diagnostic services.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4083

Supplemental Report of the 2019-20 Budget Act [Publication Details]

Aug 2, 2019 - Supplemental Report of the 2019-20 Budget Act [Publication Details] Translate Our Website This Google ™ translation feature provided on the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) website is for informational purposes only.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4084