The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2019-20 Budget: California Spending Plan—Debt Liabilities

Oct 17, 2019 - Deferrals To address budgetary shortfalls, at various points, the state made adjustments to expenditure accounting to push costs into different fiscal years, providing a temporary budgetary benefit. Background on the Payroll Deferral .
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4106

Taking Stock of California’s Recession Readiness

Feb 12, 2020 - Our scenario analyses demonstrate that a prudent operating surplus can buffer the state ’s budget and multiyear fiscal condition against recessions and other unexpected developments that push costs higher than anticipated.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4156

Long-term Capacity for Debt Payments Under Proposition 2

Dec 21, 2017 - This could push repayments of more flexible items —such as settle up, the CalPERS borrowing plan, or special fund loan repayments —to later years, reducing the capacity for new commitments after the mid-2020s.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3727

The 2022-23 Budget: State Appropriations Limit Implications

Mar 30, 2022 - Delay SAL ‑Required Payments State Also Can Ease Some Short ‑Term Pressure by Pushing Out Payments … Another way the state can manage this risk in the short term is by delaying when SAL requirements are paid.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4583

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - The state ’s appropriations subject to the limit fell substantially during the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s and again during the Great Recession due to the significant decline in state revenues during those downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2019-20 Budget: Undoing California’s Outstanding Budgetary Deferrals

Mar 26, 2019 - (The state ’s fiscal year runs from July 1 st to June 30 th , so these deferrals usually involve pushing payments from June into July.) Deferrals can provide significant budgetary savings immediately, helping the state balance the budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3988

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762