Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

The 2026-27 Budget: California Competes Extension

Mar 18, 2026 - In other words, there is no explicit downside risk of making the award. …But Also Indicates a Possible Trade-Off. However, there is a potential trade-off when considering awarding a credit to an applicant with a higher potential benefit to the state but a lower probability of achieving their milestones, compared to an applicant with a lower benefit but who is more likely to achieve their milestones.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5162

The 2017-18 Budget: Governor's Gann Limit Proposal

Mar 2, 2017 - As revenues surged during the dot ‑com boom of the late 1990s, however, the state approached the limit. The state had excess revenues in 1999 ‑00, but because appropriations were under the limit in 2000 ‑01, additional Proposition  98 spending and taxpayer rebates were not required.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3596

Fixing Unemployment Insurance

Dec 2, 2024 - In other words, paradoxically, businesses ’ improving reserve balances moved them to lower tax rate rungs within the F+ schedule, which had the effect of lowering state UI tax rates, as shown in Figure  5 .
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4943

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - After a period of relative calm in the mid ‑ and late ‑1990s, California faced another series of years with acute budget problems following the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession. Although the dot ‑com bust was relatively mild in economic terms, it hit the California budget —which is particularly reliant on the Bay Area ’s technology sector —especially hard.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - In other words, we estimate the 10 th percentile hourly wage for men to be roughly 5  percent to 10  percent higher than the 10 th percentile hourly wage for women. This wage gap is smaller than national estimates, though still substantial.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/3

The 2018-19 Budget: Governor's Gann Limit Estimates

Apr 6, 2018 - In other words, the discretionary grants are not accounted for under state or local calculations, violating a core principle of the Gann Limit. Counting these subventions at the state level reduces room by $1.3  billion in 2016 ‑17, $877  million in 2017 ‑18, and $1.8  billion in 2018 ‑19.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3800

California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - In particular, its accuracy depends on the assumption that outcomes for nonrespondents are “conditionally missing at random. ” In other words, if the method used to construct the weights misses major systematic differences between respondents and nonrespondents, then the resulting estimates potentially can be quite inaccurate.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/4

A Key Interaction Between Sales Taxes and Other Taxes on Cannabis Retailers

Dec 17, 2019 - In other words, these local taxes apply to pre-sales tax gross receipts. Sales Tax Applies to Tax-Inclusive Gross Receipts. Like local business taxes, state and local sales taxes also apply to retail gross receipts.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4124