California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Whereas California’s labor market has stagnated over the last two years, the S&P 500 stock index has appreciated roughly 50 percent over the same period. And most of this increase has come from skyrocketing share prices among a handful of firms associated with innovations in Artificial Intelligence (AI).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - The stock market (S &P 500) has risen 50  percent in the last two years. Most of these gains come from the meteoric rise in the value of a handful of tech companies that investors believe will be major beneficiaries of recent advances in AI.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2020-21 Budget: Overview of the California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 5, 2020 - Specifically, the budget assumes continued year ‑to ‑year growth to the three primary IHSS cost drivers: caseload (4. 1  p ercent), hours per case (1. 5  p ercent), and IHSS provider hourly wages and benefits (6. 5  p ercent).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4263

The 2019-20 Budget: Proposition 98 Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - The K ‑ 12 r ate is about $1, 000 p er student ( 9  p ercent) above the amount school districts were receiving in 2007 ‑ 08 p rior to the Great Recession. Similarly, the community college rate is about $1, 000 p er student ( 15  p ercent) above its inflation ‑adjusted 2007 ‑ 08 l evel.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3897

The 2021-22 Budget: CalWORKs Fiscal Outlook

Dec 8, 2020 - Personal income for Californians actually increased by about 6  p ercent between the first and second quarters of 2020 e ven as unemployment increased more than 10  p ercentage points, in part reflecting federal relief measures that put cash in people ’s pockets.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4306

The 2019-20 Budget: California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 17, 2019 - (Leave benefits are funded by a 1  p ercent payroll tax, paid by employees, and can be used to bond with a new child or care for a seriously ill family member.) In addition to lengthening the duration of leave, the spending plan reduces the required reserve level in the Disability Insurance Fund —which disburses paid family leave benefits —from 45  p ercent to 30  p ercent of annual disbursements.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4083

The 2018-19 Budget: California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 2, 2018 - Most of the increase ($ 22  m illion) is attributable to the program receiving a 4. 3  p ercent COLA. The higher rate is in recognition that the program did not receive a COLA the past few years. Specifically, the 4. 3  p ercent equates to a 2. 7  p ercent COLA associated with 2018 ‑19 and a 1. 6  p ercent COLA associated with 2017 ‑18.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3870/3

The 2020-21 Budget: Proposition 2 Debt Payment Proposals

Mar 10, 2020 - For example, suppose in some year CalSTRS experiences an annual return of 3  p ercent —which is lower than the assumed rate of 7  p ercent. To make up for this actuarial loss, the board would need to increase the state ’s rate by approximately 2  p ercent of pay, but under law could only raise the rate by 0. 5  p ercent of pay each year over four years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4196

The 2020-21 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2020 - For example, for General Fund support to both university systems, the Governor withdraws his January proposal to provide a 5  p ercent base increase and then makes a 10  p ercent reduction. (In this case, the former is not part of the “trigger ” reduction, but the latter is.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4232

The 2018-19 Budget: California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 2, 2018 - As Figure  8 shows, $4. 1  b illion ( 56  p ercent) is state General Fund, $3. 2  b illion ( 43  p ercent) is student tuition and fee revenue, and $ 53  m illion (0. 7  p ercent) is other state funding (primarily lottery revenue).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3870/5