California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - These challenges would not be short-lived either. After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Instead, much of the bounce appears to be tied to special forms of pay for high ‑income workers, such as bonuses and stock  compensation. Booming Stock Market Driving Income Growth. The recent run ‑up in the stock market, which appears tied to optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, is a primary driver of the rapid growth in pay to high ‑income workers.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

Cal Facts: 2016

Dec 5, 2016 - The IHSS cost per consumer grew annually by an average of 5  percent between 2006-07 and 2009-10, slowing to an average of 3  percent per year through 2014-15. Since then, IHSS cost per consumer has grown significantly at an estimated average of 15  percent per year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3511/3

The 2018-19 Budget: California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 2, 2018 - Additionally, caseload funding cannot increase or decrease by a step of more than 5  p ercent each year, even if the caseload increases or decreases by more than 5  p ercent. Caseload funding will not change in years when the caseload is steady and does not increase or decrease by more than 5  p ercent.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3870/7

Federal Spending in California

Jan 18, 2017 - Federal Government Paid $5 Billion in Contracts and Grants to Universities. We estimate contract and grant payments to all California higher education institutions, mainly for research and development, were nearly $5 billion in FFY 2012-13.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3531/3

The 2019-20 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - This recession scenario is relatively short ‑ lived —the economy begins to recover at the start of 2021 ‑22. Revenues Revenue Situation Assuming Continued Economic Growth. Under our growth scenario, General Fund revenues and transfers grow from $137. 5  b illion in 2018 ‑ 19 t o $159. 3  b illion in 2022 ‑23.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3896

The 2022-23 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges

Nov 17, 2021 - The Legislature and Governor previously agreed to ramp up ongoing funding over the next four years —from $1 billion in 2021 ‑22 to about $5 billion by 2025 ‑26. The state could accelerate this schedule, which would give districts more certainty about their funding levels and potentially improve local planning for these  programs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4473

The 2019-20 Budget: California Spending Plan—Debt Liabilities

Oct 17, 2019 - Sometimes the state settles up as a fiscal year is ending, but other times, the state does not settle up immediately. In the latter cases, the state creates an outstanding fiscal obligation known as a settle-up obligation.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4106

The 2020-21 Budget: Proposition 2 Debt Payment Proposals

Mar 10, 2020 - Figure 5 shows how our recommendation could work. For example, suppose in some year CalSTRS experiences an annual return of 3  p ercent —which is lower than the assumed rate of 7  p ercent. To make up for this actuarial loss, the board would need to increase the state ’s rate by approximately 2  p ercent of pay, but under law could only raise the rate by 0. 5  p ercent of pay each year over four years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4196

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Ongoing, the Governor ’s spending ‑related solutions provide $5  billion in savings within a few years. Appendix 1 provides a list of the Governor ’s budget solutions. Generates $5.6 Billion School and Community College Settle‑Up Obligation in 2025‑26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101