Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

The 2026-27 Budget: California Competes Extension

Mar 18, 2026 - One study used detailed administrative data on applicants and awards to show that tax credit-supported project s are associated with positive employment effects in surrounding areas, consistent with net job creation rather than displacing other existing economic activity.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5162

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - After a period of relative calm in the mid ‑ and late ‑1990s, California faced another series of years with acute budget problems following the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession. Although the dot ‑com bust was relatively mild in economic terms, it hit the California budget —which is particularly reliant on the Bay Area ’s technology sector —especially hard.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Film Tax Credit

Feb 28, 2023 - Dozens of studies over the last two decades have examined the economic effects of film tax credits in California and other states. These studies have used a variety of methods and reached varying conclusions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4713

Fixing Unemployment Insurance

Dec 2, 2024 - During the phase ‑in period, the state also entered the dot ‑com recession. These two cost pressures absorbed the remaining flexibility in the state ’s UI tax system. As  shown in Figure  4 , the state began this period in Schedule C but quickly moved to Schedule F+, the highest tax schedule, where it has remained since.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4943

Overview of Diversity Efforts in the Film Tax Credit Program

May 1, 2025 - Although below ‑the ‑line positions make up the large majority of workers in the motion picture industry, some studies have documented a relationship between the gender/race/ethnicity of executive positions (such as director/producer) and the downstream diversity of cast and crew for that production.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5036

Evaluating State Economic Stimulus Proposals

Feb 1, 2021 - …But Studies Still Can Provide Useful Information. Even if economic studies face significant challenges in quantifying economic benefits, these studies often provide other useful information. For example, studies often describe the intended policy outcomes and qualitatively discuss the potential economic effects of proposals.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4331

The 2017-18 Budget: Governor's Gann Limit Proposal

Mar 2, 2017 - As revenues surged during the dot ‑com boom of the late 1990s, however, the state approached the limit. The state had excess revenues in 1999 ‑00, but because appropriations were under the limit in 2000 ‑01, additional Proposition  98 spending and taxpayer rebates were not required.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3596

The 2025-26 Budget: Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development

Mar 18, 2025 - Because the grant program is relatively new, these studies did not include grants in their analysis and we cannot be certain the results will translate directly to the grant. However, the grant program has the same evaluation structure as the credit, which suggests it could be similarly effective at identifying the best applicati ons.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5018