The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Analysis

Mar 2, 2026 - One possible reason for our higher estimate is that our model reflects not only disenrollment among current enrollees, but also reduced enrollment flows over time and a persistent risk of disenrollment among eligible individuals due to added administrative burden.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5146

The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Moreover, data generally are not readily available to estimate monthly caseloads and costs of other UIS populations. Without better data at hand, projecting costs for adults with UIS is inherently imprecise.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5092

The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Analysis [Publication Details]

Mar 2, 2026 - In this report, we analyze the Governor’s budget for Medi-Cal, with a focus on base spending trends, changes to provider taxes, implementation of new H.R. 1 rules, oversight over enacted budget solutions, and considerations for identifying additional savings in Medi-Cal.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5146

Considering Medi-Cal in the Midst of a Changing Fiscal and Policy Landscape

Oct 24, 2025 - …But Potentially With Added Complexity. Adding more flexibilities also could come with the potential downside of more complexity for beneficiaries and counties. For example, exempting high unemployment counties from work requirements could create more volatility.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5083

Update on COVID-19 Spending in California

Nov 5, 2020 - Designated Funding Unemployment Insurance (UI). Most employees are eligible to receive weekly UI benefits when they become unemployed. Federal law enacted in March  2020 made a few significant changes to UI, including providing recipients with an additional $600 per week on top of their typical benefit through July 31, 2020 and expanding UI to cover self-employed workers.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4292

The 2026-27 Budget: Department of Developmental Services

Mar 13, 2026 - The department stated that its budget projections for 2026 ‑27 do not incorporate any potential added costs due to the changes in H.R 1. Will the department be able to determine whether its costs increase in the future due to H.R. 1?
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5157

The 2025-26 California Spending Plan: Health

Oct 16, 2025 - Most notably, the administration plans to contract with a pharmacy rebate aggregator to negotiate rebates with manufacturers on drugs provided to UIS members. This is a population for which the state currently does not receive drug rebates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5075

The 2025-26 Budget: Understanding Recent Increases in the Medi-Cal Senior Caseload

Mar 6, 2025 - In the paragraphs that follow, we provide our analysis that results in ou r estimate of at least 165,000 seniors being added due to eligibility expansions since 2020. (As a consequence of this estimate, it follows naturally that we estimate up to 60,000  seniors being added due to the effects of continuous coverage, the unwinding, and unwinding flexibilities, for a total increase of 225,000 seniors due to policy changes.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5010

Building California’s Behavioral Health Infrastructure: Progress Update and Opportunities for the Proposition 1 Bond

Feb 5, 2025 - Strategies to do so have included expanding the behavioral health workforce; adding benefits and increasing rates in Medi ‑Cal; and increasing capacity through managed care plans, schools, and in other  settings.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4954

Mental Health Services Act: Revenue Volatility and the Governor’s Proposal to Reduce Allowable County Reserves

Jul 13, 2023 - One way to measure the variability in a data series is average deviation (AD). AD summarizes —for a given time period —how many percentage points the data in a series deviate from the average growth rate.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4780