California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2019-20 Budget: Undoing California’s Outstanding Budgetary Deferrals

Mar 26, 2019 - While the cost to undo these actions is $1.7  billion, the benefit of deferring these payments again in the future would likely be somewhat higher than $1.7  billion, assuming employee compensation and pension costs continue to grow.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3988

The 2019-20 May Revision: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 12, 2019 - Across the three years, CT revenues are higher by $1.7  billion compared to January. Much of this is the result of stronger-than-expected CT collections in April. We believe this increase in revenues likely is a one-time event in response to federal tax changes in 2017.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4039

The 2024-25 Budget: Proposition 2 Debt Payment Proposals

Mar 20, 2024 - Although the state has already transferred the $1.7  billion payment to CalPERS associated with the 2023 ‑24 Proposition  2 requirement, how the funds would be applied to the state ’s unfunded liability has not yet been determined.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4887

Evolution of the Balance of the Budget Stabilization Account

Nov 14, 2018 - Under our revenue estimates in the Fiscal Outlook , the formulas under Proposition  2 yield a required deposit in 2019 ‑20 of $1.7  billion. If deposited into the BSA, this would bring the total balance in the account to $15.4  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3900

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2022-23 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - Between 2021 ‑22 and 2022 ‑23, we project the phase out will raise General Fund costs in Medi ‑Cal by $1.7 billion. Then, in 2023 ‑24, the full phase out will raise General Fund costs by another $800 million.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4474

The 2016-17 Budget: California Spending Plan

Oct 5, 2016 - High –Speed Rail Authority (HSRA) The budget plan includes total expenditures of $1.7  billion for HSRA, roughly $1  billion above the level of expenditures in 2015 –16 . The increase primarily reflects the shifting of some HSRA workload and expenditures initially assumed to occur in 2015 –16 .
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3487/9

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 16, 2022 - Specifically, annual General Fund contributions to CalPERS would be higher by $1.7  billion by the last year of our outlook. (A  corresponding upward adjustment to The California State Teachers ’ Retirement System was not necessary due to differing funding mechanisms and investment returns.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4646

The 2018-19 Budget: Governor's Gann Limit Estimates

Apr 6, 2018 - Incorporating the final 2016 ‑17 data —as well as our estimates for 2017 ‑18 and 2018 ‑19 —reduces state room by $2.5  billion in 2016 ‑17, $1.7  billion in 2017 ‑18, and $610  million in 2018 ‑19 (relative to the administration ’s January 2018 estimates).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3800