Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - After a period of relative calm in the mid ‑ and late ‑1990s, California faced another series of years with acute budget problems following the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession. Although the dot ‑com bust was relatively mild in economic terms, it hit the California budget —which is particularly reliant on the Bay Area ’s technology sector —especially hard.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

The 2026-27 Budget: California Competes Extension

Mar 18, 2026 - On one hand, there is a clear strategic benefit to allowing the credit pool to increase beyond the baseline allocation: Changing macroeconomic conditions over the course of the business cycle means that there are years when businesses are more inclined to invest and expand operations than in other years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5162

Fixing Unemployment Insurance

Dec 2, 2024 - During the phase ‑in period, the state also entered the dot ‑com recession. These two cost pressures absorbed the remaining flexibility in the state ’s UI tax system. As  shown in Figure  4 , the state began this period in Schedule C but quickly moved to Schedule F+, the highest tax schedule, where it has remained since.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4943

The 2025-26 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Oct 16, 2025 - The increase in construction costs stems mainly from site conditions, which were found to be more complex than initially estimated and require the use of specialized vehicles, structures, and equipment.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5081

Local Sales Tax Rebates in 2023-24

Sep 16, 2025 - Economic Conditions in Rebate-Paying Jurisdictions Slightly Better Than Statewide Average. Next, we examine some economic and demographic features of two groups of jurisdictions: (1)  those whose 2023-24 rebate payments totaled $1 to $20 per resident, and (2)  those whose rebate payments totaled more than $20 per resident.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5074

The 2025-26 Budget: Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development

Mar 18, 2025 - We recently assessed the General Fund condition as roughly balanced in 2025-26, with significant annual operating deficits thereafter. Additional risks related to federal funding and fire recovery costs could worsen the budget condition in the coming months.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5018

Evaluation of a Tax Exemption for Zero-Emission Buses

Apr 15, 2024 - CARB Exempts Transit Agencies From ICT Requirements Under Some Conditions. Under the ICT, CARB will exempt a transit agency from the requirements described above under specified conditions outside the agency ’s control, including: The agency declares a financial emergency.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4890

California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - In this context, the two main parts of the Arellano and Bonhomme (2017) model are (1)  a set of equations that predict the conditional quantiles of the wage distribution, and (2)  an equation that predicts whether each worker responds to the survey ’s wage questions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/4