Improving California’s Unemployment Insurance Program

Aug 8, 2022 - However, the vast majority of fraud occurred in the temporary, 100  percent federally funded programs that now have ended. The federal program did not require the basic fraud safeguards found in the state ’s regular UI program.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4615

California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - Finally, we described how we matched household types to apartment types for the analysis of housing costs. Strengths and Weaknesses of Data Sources Primary Data Source: Monthly Current Population Surveys (CPS).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/4

California’s First Film Tax Credit Program

Sep 29, 2016 - For example, the model predicts that one out of every two independent feature films that applied for a film tax credit would have likely been made in California regardless of whether or not they received a credit.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3502

How High? Adjusting California’s Cannabis Taxes

Dec 17, 2019 - Set Rate to Match Policy Goals We recommend that the Legislature set the tax rate to match its policy goals. Below, we provide specific recommendations for each type of tax. Setting Tax Rates for Recommended Tax Types.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4125

Updating the California Necessities Index

Aug 14, 2025 - While future data availability cannot be fully predicted, certain statistics are statistically more reliable than others and ar e thus more likely to be available in the future. Options Considered Based on the criteria discussed above, we consider the following options for replacing the CNI.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5065

The 2017-18 Budget: Evaluating the State-County Assessors' Partnership Agreement Program

Mar 27, 2017 - We cannot be sure whether scenario 1 or scenario 2 (or some combination of the two) would have occurred. We do, however, see some evidence that suggests at least some of the workload performed by SCAPAP staff could have been absorbed by existing staff.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3632

The 2024-25 Budget: Governor's Office of Business and Economic Development

Feb 20, 2024 - We estimate the Governor ’s budget predicts the state ’s 2024-25 budget will need to address a $58 billion deficit . In December, our office predicted a somewhat large deficit of $68 billion . Since then, recent data has continued to point to the budget problem being larger than the Governor’s budget assumes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4846

The 2020-21 May Revision: Revenue Proposals in the 2020-21 May Revision

May 20, 2020 - Revenues From NOL Suspensions and Credit Limits Would Be Difficult to Predict. We have found that predicting the revenue effects of corporation tax changes accurately is challenging. Changes to NOLs and credits are particularly challenging because they are concentrated with a relatively small number of corporations.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4238

The 2021-22 Budget: Business Tax Incentives

Jan 28, 2021 - The high recapture rate suggests that many businesses with tax credit agreements could not accurately predict their future hiring and investment choices. Additionally, the high recapture rate raises new concerns about the number of new private ‑sector jobs created by this program.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4327

The Property Tax Inheritance Exclusion

Oct 9, 2017 - While the extent of this increase is difficult to predict, if the relationship suggested by Figure  2 is true it is possible that annual property tax losses attributable to inheritance exclusions could increase by several hundred million dollars over the next decade.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3706