The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - One key difference between our office and the administration is that our economic scenario assumes notably higher wage and salary growth in 2018 and 2019. Figure 1 Comparing Recent California Economic Scenarios Percent Change Unless Indicated Target federal funds rate (percent) 1.6 S &P 500 (annual average) 2,612 73 61 a An economic growth scenario based on Moody ’s Analytics ’ April 2018 U.S.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

The 2019-20 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 14, 2019 - The administration indicates schools may use these funds for either ( 1)  s pecial education services for students with disabilities or ( 2)  e arly intervention programs for students who are not yet receiving special education services.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3916

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - After a period of relative calm in the mid ‑ and late ‑1990s, California faced another series of years with acute budget problems following the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession. Although the dot ‑com bust was relatively mild in economic terms, it hit the California budget —which is particularly reliant on the Bay Area ’s technology sector —especially hard.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

The 2026-27 Budget: California Competes Extension

Mar 18, 2026 - Program staff must weigh these possibly competing factors, and the high recapture rate cou ld indicate a relative favoring of high-risk, high-rewards projects. In years where the program is fully subscribed, there is an opportunity cost associated with an agreement that is not fulfilled.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5162

The 2026-27 Budget: State Mandate—Disclosure Requirements and Deferral of Property Taxation

Feb 19, 2026 - In discussions with our office, the administration indicated proposing a suspension due to the state ’s challenging budget situation. Under this proposal, Los Angeles County would not receive reimbursement for the required activities unless the mandate was funded (taken off suspension) in a future budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5130

Evaluation of a Tax Exemption for Zero-Emission Buses

Apr 15, 2024 - As a result, these two performance indicators are effectively identical. Performance Indicators Shed Little Light on Effectiveness of Exemption. We describe recent trends in transit agencies ’ ZEB acquisition below.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4890

Sales Tax Exemption for Bunker Fuel

Nov 19, 2025 - Chapter  442 directs our office to report three performance indicators: The average monthly maritime fuel price at all domestic and international Pacific seaports. The average monthly maritime fuel price at California seaports.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5094

California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - Bollinger, Christopher, Barry Hirsch, Charles Hokayem, and James Ziliak (2019). “Trouble in the Tails? What We Know About Earnings Nonresponse 30 Years After Lillard, Smith, and Welch. ” Journal of Political Economy 127(51).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/4

Updating the California Necessities Index

Aug 14, 2025 - These indices are based on changes in prices for consumers in the state ’s four largest metropolitan areas, with the California CPI ‑W tracking prices of goods and services bought by wage earners in those areas.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5065