The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Introduction Each year, our office publishes the Fiscal Outlook in anticipation of the upcoming budget season. This report gives the Legislature our independent estimates and analysis of the state ’s General Fund budget condition with the goal of helping lawmakers prepare for the 2026 ‑27 budget process.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - Enhanced Federal Match for Home ‑ and Community ‑Based Services (HCBS). The ARP also included a temporary enhanced federal match rate for HCBS funded through the Medicaid program, which reduces the state ’s share of base program costs for these services by $3 billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - Although caseloads under the Governor’s budget are higher than anticipated in June, economic conditions likely do not yet match what the Legislature envisioned when it created the reserve. Moreover, the administration proposes ongoing reductions to CalWORKs despite withdrawing these reserves.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - While the budget picture is fair for the upcoming year, our outlook suggests that the state faces double ‑digit operating deficits in the years to come. By historical standards, spending growth in this year ’s outlook is high.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2020-21 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2019 - In the upcoming budget season, the Legislature will allocate this amount between making new budget commitments (like spending increases or tax reductions), paying down debts, and building more reserves.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4111

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 16, 2022 - To address the budget problem for the upcoming year, these cases might provide the Legislature with areas for pause, delay,  or  reassessment.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4646

With New Deficits Looming, California Will Weigh its Options for Allocating a Large Revenue Windfall

Dec 1, 2020 - Finally, there is some urgency to rebuilding the state ’s budget resilience in the upcoming budget cycle. Recall that the windfall is the difference between the lower revenues assumed in the current budget and actual (considerably higher) tax collections.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4305

A History of California’s Budget Reserves

Mar 24, 2017 - By June 15 of each year, the Legislature must pass, and the Governor signs, a budget for the upcoming fiscal year (which runs from July 1 to June 30). The budget includes expectations about how much the state will spend and how much revenue the state will collect over the next year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3630

The 2024-25 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2024 - Under these rules, the state can make withdrawals from the constitutionally required balance of the BSA in a fiscal emergency, which occurs when estimated resources for the upcoming year are insufficient to cover the costs of the previous three enacted budgets, adjusted for inflation and population.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4902