The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - As shown in Figure  1 , many signs of an overly exuberant stock market are present today: measures of whether stocks are “expensive ” are at historically high levels, investors are borrowing more to buy stocks, and households are more invested in the stock market than they have been in at least 70  years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2024-25 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2024 - Together, these scoring differences account for the roughly $27  billion difference in our office ’s accounting of the budget problem and the administration ’s scoring. While we would maintain that our approach more accurately reflects current law, these scoring differences do not reflect substantive differences in state ’s fiscal position.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4902

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - The underlying budget dynamics today are particularly challenging for three reasons. First, revenues have not caught up with expenditures. Second, under our estimates, expenditure growth exceeds estimated revenue growth.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

The 2022-23 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit

Sep 30, 2022 - For more information about the history of the appropriations limit, and an analysis of why the SAL is impacting budget decisions today, see our previous reports, here: The State Appropriations Limit .
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4631

The 2019-20 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - For retiree health, these increases reflect rising health premiums and the fact that state retirees are living longer in retirement. In ‑Home Supportive Services (IHSS). The IHSS program accounts for about 3  p ercent of General Fund costs today, but over the outlook period is responsible for 10  p ercent of total growth.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3896

The 2020-21 Budget: California's Spring Fiscal Outlook

May 8, 2020 - Eliminate Cost ‑of ‑Living Adjustments (COLAs). Our estimates of the budget problem assume the state provides inflation ‑related cost increases in order to maintain current service levels, although those increases are not necessarily required under current law or policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4228

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - As we discuss later in this brief, the May Revision maintains a cost ‑of ‑living adjustment (COLA) and other spending increases for schools and community colleges despite the drop in funding. Baseline Spending Higher by $12   Billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - While not all of these amounts represent lower state spending over the long term, they do result in savings today at a cost in the future. As a result, we count them as spending‑related solutions. We estimate the proposed budget includes about $3 billion in reversions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

Fiscal Outlook Addendum: CalPERS

Nov 18, 2015 - By rejecting the faster shift to a 6.5 percent discount rate, the CalPERS action mitigates some of the near-term budget risk for retirement funding we discuss in today 's Fiscal Outlook . As we state in the Fiscal Outlook (p. 44 of the pdf version), the plan adopted today by the CalPERS board "would not necessarily increase costs above our assumptions between now and 2019-20 " because it changes the system 's discount rates so gradually.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3308