The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - This  is not a prediction of what will happen —state and federal laws and policies will change in the coming years —but rather serves as a baseline to help the Legislature understand its starting place.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Cal Facts: 2016

Dec 5, 2016 - Cal Facts: 2016 Other Programs W ith a state as big, as populous, and as complex as California, it would be impossible to quickly summarize how its economy or state budget works. The purpose of Cal Facts is more modest.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3511

Fiscal Outlook: In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS)

Nov 14, 2018 - Taking into account historical trends, w e assume that overall IHSS caseload will increase by 5.8  percent annually and hours per case will increase by 2.5  percent annually through 2022 ‑23. Rising Statewide Minimum Wage Increases Hourly Cost of Care.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3899

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - This is not a prediction of what will happen —state and federal laws and policies will change in the coming years —but rather serves as a baseline to help the Legislature understand its starting place.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2019-20 Budget: Proposition 98 Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - (We note that the statutory COLA has been difficult to predict, with the actual COLA rate, as locked down in April each year, exceeding Moody ’s fall consensus projection the past few years.) Under Recession Scenario, Minimum Guarantee Drops in 2020 ‑21 and 2021 ‑22.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3897

The 2021-22 Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Sep 23, 2021 - This includes $26.5  million for the acquisition phase of a project to build a Southern Region Emergency Operations Center and $16.7  million in reappropriated funds for the construction and equipment phases to relocate the Red Mountain Communications Site in Del Norte County.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4452

Despite Fiscal Forecasting Uncertainties, Multiyear Budget Planning Essential

May 27, 2021 - While events of the past year show that attempting to predict the future is a fool ’s errand, the value of multiyear fiscal estimates is not in their predictive precision. Rather, policymakers need insight on the condition of the state ’s underlying fiscal operations —annual revenues relative to expenditures —outside of any near-term surplus or deficit.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4443

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - But since macroeconomic dynamics are multifaceted and context dependent, successfully predicting the scenario that will play out is virtually impossible. Consider as evidence that in just the last several years —during and after the COVID-19 pandemic —consensus macroeconomic forecasts have been wildly off from actual outcomes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2022-23 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2022 - LAO Comments Adopting LAO Revenues Mitigates Budget Impacts of a Recession … Although predicting the next recession is impossible, economic indicators currently suggest a heightened risk of recession within two years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4602