Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - Budget Stabilization Account Proposition   58 Governed BSA From 2004 t o 2014. Until 2014, the BSA was governed by Proposition  58. Passed by voters in 2004, Proposition   58 r equired the state to make an annual transfer into the BSA.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

The 2026-27 Budget: California Competes Extension

Mar 18, 2026 - For awards made between 2014 and 2020, the recapture rate is almost 55  percent. This indicates that around half of the net job increases and investments promised in negotiated agreements ultimately never come to fruition or are not maintained long term.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5162

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - After a period of relative calm in the mid ‑ and late ‑1990s, California faced another series of years with acute budget problems following the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession. Although the dot ‑com bust was relatively mild in economic terms, it hit the California budget —which is particularly reliant on the Bay Area ’s technology sector —especially hard.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

The 2025-26 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Oct 16, 2025 - Proposition  2 (2014) requires the state to spend a specified amount of money (determined through a budgetary formula) each year towards eligible liabilities. It has been state policy to satisfy this requirement through the state ’s General Fund contributions to prefund retiree health benefits and annual supplemental pension payments to the California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5081/

The 2017-18 Budget: Governor's Gann Limit Proposal

Mar 2, 2017 - Unlike California ’s recent budgeting experience —in which the state ’s elected leaders and voters have prioritized reserves, including the 2014 passage of Proposition   2 —many at that time viewed the surpluses negatively.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3596

Fixing Unemployment Insurance

Dec 2, 2024 - During the phase ‑in period, the state also entered the dot ‑com recession. These two cost pressures absorbed the remaining flexibility in the state ’s UI tax system. As  shown in Figure  4 , the state began this period in Schedule C but quickly moved to Schedule F+, the highest tax schedule, where it has remained since.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4943

How High? Adjusting California’s Cannabis Taxes

Dec 17, 2019 - Miller, Keaton and Boyoung Seo (2019). “Tax Revenues When Substances Substitute: Marijuana, Alcohol, and Tobacco. ” Mimeo, University of Oregon. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2017).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4125

Volatility of California’s Personal Income Tax Structure

Sep 28, 2017 - (To control for tax law changes, we estimated how much General Fund revenue would have been collected in each year from 1990 to 2014 if the 2016 tax structure had been in place over the entire period.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3703

Effect of Returning to Historical Estimated Tax Payment Schedule

Feb 27, 2023 - The revenue shift also would have minor effects on Proposition  2 (2014) reserve requirements. Administrative Costs. The Franchise Tax Board estimates that returning estimated payments to four equal payments would result in one-time administrative costs of $151,000 in 2023 ‑24.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4722