Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - After a period of relative calm in the mid ‑ and late ‑1990s, California faced another series of years with acute budget problems following the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession. Although the dot ‑com bust was relatively mild in economic terms, it hit the California budget —which is particularly reliant on the Bay Area ’s technology sector —especially hard.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

The 2020-21 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2020 - Our office estimated the full ‑year savings —in 2022 ‑ 23 —of suspending these expenditures was $1. 7  b illion. The augmentations subject to suspensions were in a variety of state programs, including In ‑Home Supportive Services, developmental services, and Medi ‑Cal.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4135

Fixing Unemployment Insurance

Dec 2, 2024 - (We recommend excluding 2020 from this calculation given the abnormality of UI costs that year.) Then, we multiply this rate by current covered employment and current average weekly benefit amounts to define a “typical benefit cost year. ” This is currently about $7  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4943

The 2026-27 Budget: State Mandate—Disclosure Requirements and Deferral of Property Taxation

Feb 19, 2026 - However, Proposition  19 (2020) allows certain homeowners (such as people who are 55 years or older) to transfer their existing home value for property tax purposes to a new home anywhere in the state.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5130

The 2026-27 Budget: California Competes Extension

Mar 18, 2026 - For awards made between 2014 and 2020, the recapture rate is almost 55  percent. This indicates that around half of the net job increases and investments promised in negotiated agreements ultimately never come to fruition or are not maintained long term.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5162

Overview of Major Impacts of H.R. 1 – One Big Beautiful Bill Act [Publication Details]

Aug 20, 2025 - Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 7 on Accountability and Oversight
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5067

Overview of Diversity Efforts in the Film Tax Credit Program

May 1, 2025 - Diversity Provisions Introduced in 2020. Version 3.0 of the credit, which began in 2020 and runs through June 2025, requires applicants to provide (1)  statistics on the gender, ethnic, and racial makeup of their workforce, and (2)  a written policy outlining the applicant ’s procedures for dealing with unlawful harassment in the workplace.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5036

The 2026-27 Budget: CDTFA’s Cannabis and Tobacco Programs

Feb 23, 2026 - In a November 2022 referendum, voters approved Chapter  34 of 2020 (SB  793, Hill), which bans most sales of flavored tobacco products. ( “Flavored ” refers to non ‑tobacco flavors, such as menthol cigarettes or fruit ‑flavored e ‑cigarettes.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5132