The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - As shown in Figure  1 , many signs of an overly exuberant stock market are present today: measures of whether stocks are “expensive ” are at historically high levels, investors are borrowing more to buy stocks, and households are more invested in the stock market than they have been in at least 70  years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Fiscal Outlook Addendum: CalPERS

Nov 18, 2015 - By rejecting the faster shift to a 6.5 percent discount rate, the CalPERS action mitigates some of the near-term budget risk for retirement funding we discuss in today 's Fiscal Outlook . As we state in the Fiscal Outlook (p. 44 of the pdf version), the plan adopted today by the CalPERS board "would not necessarily increase costs above our
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3308

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

An Extraordinary Moment in California's Fiscal History

Apr 11, 2019 - Specifically, we suggest that instead of using money today to repay low-interest budgetary debts (loans to the General Fund from special funds), the Legislature could achieve a higher return on its investment by making larger supplemental contributions toward its unfunded pension liabilities, which accrue at higher interest rates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4003

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - While not all of these amounts represent lower state spending over the long term, they do result in savings today at a cost in the future. As a result, we count them as spending‑related solutions. We estimate the proposed budget includes about $3 billion in reversions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2024-25 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2024 - By pulling back substantially on one-time and temporary spending, as well as making some ongoing reductions, the Governor ’s May Revision shrinks the state ’s projected deficits from around $30  billion (our December 2023 estimates) to an average of less than $10  billion (our estimates today).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4907

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - Enhanced Federal Match for Home ‑ and Community ‑Based Services (HCBS). The ARP also included a temporary enhanced federal match rate for HCBS funded through the Medicaid program, which reduces the state ’s share of base program costs for these services by $3 billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

The 2019-20 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - In recent years, the state share of costs has been increasing for Medi ‑Cal ’s optional expansion as a result of scheduled reductions in federal matching funds. Similarly, in the next couple of years, the state ’s share of costs for the Children ’s Health Insurance Program also will increase as the federal share declines.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3896

The 2016-17 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 2 Debt Proposal

Feb 24, 2016 - Meanwhile, the various Proposition  2 eligible debts carry different interest rates—and therefore different future costs. Proposition  2 presents an opportunity for the state to shift its attention toward the more costly of these liabilities.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3363

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - In addition, in response to the crisis, the state spent $ 1  b illion (roughly $1. 5  b illion in today ’s dollars) on various conservation and rebate programs in the 2001 ‑ 02 b udget. Loma Prieta Earthquake.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769