The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - As shown in Figure  1 , many signs of an overly exuberant stock market are present today: measures of whether stocks are “expensive ” are at historically high levels, investors are borrowing more to buy stocks, and households are more invested in the stock market than they have been in at least 70  years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - While not all of these amounts represent lower state spending over the long term, they do result in savings today at a cost in the future. As a result, we count them as spending‑related solutions. We estimate the proposed budget includes about $3 billion in reversions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2024-25 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2024 - Together, these scoring differences account for the roughly $27  billion difference in our office ’s accounting of the budget problem and the administration ’s scoring. While we would maintain that our approach more accurately reflects current law, these scoring differences do not reflect substantive differences in state ’s fiscal position.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4902

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - The underlying budget dynamics today are particularly challenging for three reasons. First, revenues have not caught up with expenditures. Second, under our estimates, expenditure growth exceeds estimated revenue growth.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - Relative to the budget act, we score an additional $1 billion in net General Fund savings between 2020 ‑21 and 2021 ‑22 associated with the enhanced Medicaid HCBS match. However, these funds are not ultimately part of the surplus —they have already been committed to specific HCBS enhancements that were adopted after the passage of the budget act through the state ’s HCBS Spending Plan.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

The 2022-23 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit

Sep 30, 2022 - For more information about the history of the appropriations limit, and an analysis of why the SAL is impacting budget decisions today, see our previous reports, here: The State Appropriations Limit .
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4631

The 2018-19 Budget: California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 2, 2018 - The budget scores all of the settle ‑up payment as a Proposition  2 debt payment. Budget Package Enacts New Proposition   98 Certification Process. Certification is the process of finalizing the calculation of the minimum guarantee after the fiscal year is over.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3870/3

Fiscal Outlook Addendum: CalPERS

Nov 18, 2015 - By rejecting the faster shift to a 6.5 percent discount rate, the CalPERS action mitigates some of the near-term budget risk for retirement funding we discuss in today 's Fiscal Outlook . As we state in the Fiscal Outlook (p. 44 of the pdf version), the plan adopted today by the CalPERS board "would not necessarily increase costs above our assumptions between now and 2019-20 " because it changes the system 's discount rates so gradually.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3308

The 2023-24 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Nov 8, 2023 - The budget package also removes the cap preventing a grantee from receiving more than 30  percent of the program ’s total grants if the grant will be used as a state match to apply for federal incentives for semiconductor research and manufacturing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4814