California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - We construct the estimates in the figures using workers who provided a wage response in 2023. Using the probit estimates described above, we weight each worker by the predicted inverse probability of providing a wage response.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/4

California’s First Film Tax Credit Program

Sep 29, 2016 - For example, a worker who earned more income because of the film tax credit also paid more state income, and sales and use taxes. All state taxes have likely been affected to some degree by these economic changes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3502

Fixing Unemployment Insurance

Dec 2, 2024 - To ensure revenues match benefits over time, states enacted UI financing systems. These systems are comprised of three elements: (1) a tax rate “schedule” that adjusts up or down to match revenues and benefit costs, (2) a taxable wage base level to which the tax rate applies, and (3) an experience rating factor to ensure employers pay their fair share of UI costs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4943

Common Claims About Proposition 13

Sep 19, 2016 - Land owners who have owned their property longer and therefore receive greater tax relief under Proposition  13 are less likely to develop their land. It is difficult to determine, however, how much of this can be attributed to Proposition  13 instead of other factors.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3497

Improving California’s Unemployment Insurance Program

Aug 8, 2022 - In our assessment, today ’s problems do not call for fundamental reforms that could upend longstanding tenants of the state ’s labor market. Instead, targeted changes to state practices could improve the experience unemployed workers have when they need UI.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4615

The 2026-27 Budget: CDTFA’s Cannabis and Tobacco Programs

Feb 23, 2026 - Under the Governor ’s budget proposal for the Cannabis Tax Program, this appropriation would increase to match current program spending. Administration Has Been Spending General Fund on Cannabis Tax Enforcement.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5132

Updating the California Necessities Index

Aug 14, 2025 - While future data availability cannot be fully predicted, certain statistics are statistically more reliable than others and ar e thus more likely to be available in the future. Options Considered Based on the criteria discussed above, we consider the following options for replacing the CNI.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5065

The 2020-21 May Revision: Revenue Proposals in the 2020-21 May Revision

May 20, 2020 - Revenues From NOL Suspensions and Credit Limits Would Be Difficult to Predict. We have found that predicting the revenue effects of corporation tax changes accurately is challenging. Changes to NOLs and credits are particularly challenging because they are concentrated with a relatively small number of corporations.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4238

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - Size of the Recession Does Not Perfectly Predict Revenue Losses. In general, larger recessions result in more revenue losses, but the relationship is not perfect. By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2024-25 Budget: Governor's Office of Business and Economic Development

Feb 20, 2024 - We estimate the Governor ’s budget predicts the state ’s 2024-25 budget will need to address a $58 billion deficit . In December, our office predicted a somewhat large deficit of $68 billion . Since then, recent data has continued to point to the budget problem being larger than the Governor’s budget assumes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4846