The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - In the past, these patterns have been a sign that a stock market downturn will occur in the next couple of years. There certainly is some chance that this time is different and such a downturn is not forthcoming.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - Enhanced Federal Match for Home ‑ and Community ‑Based Services (HCBS). The ARP also included a temporary enhanced federal match rate for HCBS funded through the Medicaid program, which reduces the state ’s share of base program costs for these services by $3 billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - Although caseloads under the Governor’s budget are higher than anticipated in June, economic conditions likely do not yet match what the Legislature envisioned when it created the reserve. Moreover, the administration proposes ongoing reductions to CalWORKs despite withdrawing these reserves.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Given the strong possibility of an equity market downturn over the next year, the risk of repeating a painful experience looms. This historical context argues for incorporating revenue risk up-front and adjusting the budget accordingly.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2022-23 Budget: State Appropriations Limit Implications

Mar 30, 2022 - Specifically, we modeled these variables (with transformations applied in some cases) using a multivariate normal distribution, with standard deviations and covariances set to match historical levels over the last 40 years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4583

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 16, 2022 - Assume Enhanced Federal Match for Medicaid Ends Midway Through 2022 ‑23. Medicaid is an entitlement program whose costs generally are shared between the federal government and states. In 2020, Congress approved a temporary 6.2  percentage point increase in the federal government ’s share of cost for most state Medicaid programs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4646

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - As it shows, we estimate our recommendations would allow the state to cover about three ‑quarters of funding shortfalls over the next 50 years. These Recommendations Are an Honest Reflection of Revenue Volatility.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2023-24 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 15, 2023 - (In this figure and throughout the report, some of the estimates cited here for the Governor ’s budget might not match estimates provided in our Overview of the Governor ’s Budget , published in January.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4769

The 2024-25 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2024 - Overall, this figure shows that the state budget is likely balanced over the next couple of years, but a budget problem becomes more likely in later years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4907