The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Introduction Each year, our office publishes the Fiscal Outlook in anticipation of the upcoming budget season. This report gives the Legislature our independent estimates and analysis of the state ’s General Fund budget condition with the goal of helping lawmakers prepare for the 2026 ‑27 budget process.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - Enhanced Federal Match for Home ‑ and Community ‑Based Services (HCBS). The ARP also included a temporary enhanced federal match rate for HCBS funded through the Medicaid program, which reduces the state ’s share of base program costs for these services by $3 billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - Although caseloads under the Governor’s budget are higher than anticipated in June, economic conditions likely do not yet match what the Legislature envisioned when it created the reserve. Moreover, the administration proposes ongoing reductions to CalWORKs despite withdrawing these reserves.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - While the budget picture is fair for the upcoming year, our outlook suggests that the state faces double ‑digit operating deficits in the years to come. By historical standards, spending growth in this year ’s outlook is high.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 16, 2022 - To address the budget problem for the upcoming year, these cases might provide the Legislature with areas for pause, delay,  or  reassessment.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4646

The 2024-25 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2024 - Under these rules, the state can make withdrawals from the constitutionally required balance of the BSA in a fiscal emergency, which occurs when estimated resources for the upcoming year are insufficient to cover the costs of the previous three enacted budgets, adjusted for inflation and population.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4902

The 2023-24 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 15, 2023 - (In this figure and throughout the report, some of the estimates cited here for the Governor ’s budget might not match estimates provided in our Overview of the Governor ’s Budget , published in January.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4769

The 2022-23 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges

Nov 17, 2021 - For the upcoming budget cycle, the Legislature has nearly $20 billion to allocate for new commitments, including $10.2  billion in one ‑time funds related to 2020 ‑21 and 2021 ‑22 and $9.5 billion in ongoing funds related to 2022 ‑23.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4473

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - A budget problem —also called a deficit —arises when resources for the upcoming budget are insufficient to cover the costs of currently authorized services. A budget problem is inherently a point ‑in ‑time estimate that reflects information available at the time of development, forecasts of future revenues and spending, and assumptions about which cost changes reflect current law and policy (referred to as “baseline changes ”).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079