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Report

The Administration’s Sacramento Office Building Construction Strategy: Ensuring Robust Oversight

December 14, 2016 - This report provides background information on Sacramento state office buildings and summarizes the actions taken in the 2016-17 budget process. It assesses the administration’s regional strategy for state office buildings in the Sacramento area. Finally, it provides recommendations to assist the Legislature as it faces key decision points related to the administration’s strategy.


Report

California Community Colleges: Evaluation of Intersession Extension Pilot Program

December 14, 2016 - During the state's last fiscal downturn, reductions to community college funding resulted in many students being unable to access taxpayer-subsidized courses. As a response, the state enacted Chapter 710 of 2013 (AB 955, Williams), which permitted select colleges to offer, on a pilot basis, fully fee-supported credit-bearing courses during winter and summer intersessions. Long Beach City College (LBCC)—the sole participant in the pilot—offered eight Chapter 710 courses in 2014, enrolling nearly 200 students. Our review finds that students who took these courses generally mirrored the broader LBCC student population. We also find that student outcomes for these courses were comparable to or better than outcomes for taxpayer-subsidized courses. Although the pilot was small, the results suggest that fully fee-supported intersession programs could serve as one viable means for colleges to maintain or expand access during tight budget times. Based on these encouraging results, we recommend the Legislature extend Chapter 710's sunset date and open up the program to any community college that meets specified criteria.


Post

Statewide Minimum Wage Increasing in January

December 6, 2016 - A new law passed in 2016 (SB 3 [Leno]) will increase California’s statewide minimum wage over a period of several years. The first increase will occur on January 1, 2017. This budget and policy post is a supplement to our series on the California Economy and Taxes blog, where we describe California's low-wage workers and highlight the parts of the state with local minimum wages higher than the statewide minimum wage in 2017.

(Updated 12/21/2016 to include Los Altos.)


Presentation

California's Fiscal Outlook: CSBA Presentation

December 5, 2016 - Presented to: California School Boards Association


Report

Cal Facts: 2016

December 5, 2016 - With a state as big, as populous, and as complex as California, it would be impossible to quickly summarize how its economy or state budget works. The purpose of Cal Facts is more modest. By providing various "snapshot" pieces of information, we hope to provide the reader with a broad overview of public finance and program trends in the state.

Cal Facts consists of a series of charts and tables which address questions frequently asked of our office. We hope the reader will find it to be a handy and helpful document.


Post

Hydraulic Fracturing: How It Works and Recent State Oversight Actions

December 1, 2016 - In 2014, the Legislature passed new laws intended to improve state oversight of hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking.” In this web post, we provide a progress report on the implementation of these new laws and a high-level overview of how hydraulic fracturing is used to stimulate oil and natural gas production.


Report

A Long-Term Outlook: Disability Among California’s Seniors

November 28, 2016 - This report presents the results of our projections to inform the Legislature and stakeholders about levels of disability and the potential need for long–term supports and services (LTSS) among California’s seniors over the next several decades. These projections provide a useful starting point in understanding how California’s changing population demographics will impact the LTSS delivery system. The results presented in this report can also be built upon with further analysis focused on utilization and financing of LTSS over the long term.

A companion video and infographic highlight key findings from the report.


Presentation

California's Fiscal Outlook (CASBO Presentation)

November 17, 2016 - Presented to: California Association of School Business Officials


Post

Fiscal Outlook Supplement on Proposition 2

November 16, 2016 - On November 16th our office released its annual Fiscal Outlook. The outlook provides our assessment of California’s budget condition through 2020-21. This post provides more details on the outlook’s estimates of constitutionally required debt payments and reserve deposits under Proposition 2.


Report

The 2017-18 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

November 16, 2016 - Under our current projections, assuming no changes in existing state and federal policies, we estimate the state will end the 2017-18 fiscal year with $11.5 billion in total reserves. This includes $8.7 billion in required reserves, which must be deposited into the rainy day fund, and $2.8 billion in discretionary reserves, which the Legislature can appropriate for any purpose. These reserve levels reflect the continued progress California has made in improving its budget situation. Our estimates include the effects of statewide ballot measures that were approved on November 8. The condition of the state budget depends on many volatile and unpredictable factors. This uncertainty is present in the near term and becomes greater in each subsequent year. We discuss two illustrative economic scenarios for the fiscal years after 2017-18. Under a mild recession scenario, the state would have enough reserves to cover its operating deficits through 2020-21. This means, under our assumptions, the state could weather a mild recession without cutting spending or raising taxes. However, this conclusion assumes that the state does not make any changes to its current policies and programs in any year during the outlook. This outlook also assumes no changes in federal policy, even though the recent election results suggest some such changes are now likely. State or federal policy changes could have a significant impact on the state's bottom line.


Report

Los Angeles' Bid for the 2024 Olympics and Paralympics

November 10, 2016 - Los Angeles, Budapest, and Paris are competing to host the 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games. The International Olympic Committee will choose the winning city in September 2017. Both the state and the City of Los Angeles are already planning in case the Games return to Southern California. Earlier this year, the Legislature passed a bill to provide state support for Los Angeles' bid. Under that bill, the Governor is allowed to negotiate a contract with Games organizers for the state to provide no more than $250 million of back-up financial support if the 2024 Los Angeles Olympics end with a financial shortfall. The current Los Angeles bid greatly reduces the risk of shortfalls by relying on existing facilities, thereby minimizing the risk of large cost overruns that have plagued many prior Olympic hosts. We advise the Legislature, through its oversight process, to help Games organizers keep costs and financial risks as low as possible. This report notes issues that the state may need to consider as planning for the Games proceeds.

Also see our March 23, 2017 report Update on Los Angeles’ Bid for the 2024 Olympics.


Handout

IHSS Timesheet Processing

November 1, 2016 - Presented to Senate Human Services Committee


Post

New Federal Toxics Law Could Have Future Implications for State

October 5, 2016 - On June 22, 2016, the President signed the Frank R. Lautenberg Chemical Safety for the 21st Century Act. The new law implements significant reforms to the federal Toxic Substances Control Act. Under the new law, U.S. EPA will have greater authority to evaluate and regulate existing chemicals, as well as new chemicals proposed to be brought to the market. In addition to providing EPA with more authority to enforce restrictions on chemicals, the new law places greater limits on the authority of states to enforce their own laws and regulations restricting the use of chemicals. In the long-run, it is quite possible that the new federal law—and specifically the preemption provisions—could significantly affect California’s chemical safety programs and the implementation of current and future state restrictions.


Report

The 2016-17 Budget: California Spending Plan

October 5, 2016 - Each year, the Legislative Analyst’s Office publishes the California Spending Plan to summarize the annual state budget. This publication discusses the 2016–17 Budget Act and other major budget actions approved during 2016. Unless indicated otherwise, figures and dollar amounts generally refer to budget actions passed as part of the June 2016 budget package, as signed into law on June 27 and July 1, 2016. In some cases, as noted, we discuss later budget actions approved during August 2016 by the Legislature. During August, for example, the Legislature and the Governor agreed to spend certain cap–and–trade funds. The budget totals include $400 million (General Fund) for affordable housing even though the Legislature and Governor have not reached agreement on this spending.

This year's California Spending Plan includes an interactive graphic to help the reader visualize how the state budget spent $167 billion in total state revenues.


Post

Revisiting the Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Insolvency

September 30, 2016 - Due to a variety of factors, the state's Unemployment Insurance (UI) trust fund exhausted its reserves in 2009, requiring the state to take on loans to continue the payment of benefits to unemployed workers. In this series of four online posts, we (1) examine the current condition of the UI trust fund and how it may change in the near future, (2) provide context on who pays UI taxes and how much they pay, (3) assess the extent to which the UI trust fund is prepared for the next economic downturn, and (4) look at potential steps the Legislature could take should it wish to increase reserves in the trust fund as a means to address the fiscal impacts of the next economic downturn.

Update 6/13/17:
Post 1 updated to reflect estimates in the 2017-18 May Revision.

Update 1/20/17:
Post 1 updated to reflect estimates in the 2017-18 Governor's Budget.