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Handout

How Program Spending Grew in Recent Years

January 5, 2023 - This handout explores how program spending increased since 2013-14. We focus on trends in spending since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Report

Promoting Equity in the Parole Hearing Process

January 5, 2023 - In this report, we (1) provide background on California’s parole hearing process, (2) identify current aspects of the process that could disadvantage certain groups, and (3) recommend steps to promote greater equity in the parole hearing process.

Brief

Addressing Capital Renewal at UC and CSU

January 5, 2023 - In this brief, we provide background on capital renewal at UC and CSU, assess the current approach to addressing capital renewal, make recommendations to better plan and budget for capital renewal, and raise other related issues for consideration.

Brief

Assessing California's Climate Policies—The 2022 Scoping Plan Update

January 4, 2023 - This brief evaluates the California Air Resources Board's plan for achieving statewide 2030 greenhouse gas reduction goals.

Report

Issues That Could Impact Californians' Health Care Coverage in 2023 and Beyond

December 16, 2022 - This brief looks at health care coverage in California; provides background on the drivers of the significant decline in the percentage of Californians without health care coverage over the last ten years; and discusses various issues that could impact the number of Californians with coverage, and how the type of coverage they have may change, in calendar year 2023 and beyond.

Post

New Inflation Poses Not So New Budget Risk

December 15, 2022 - Persistent high inflation presents federal and state policymakers with an economic problem not seen in roughly four decades. In fact, during much of the past 15-year period, inflation not only was subdued, it consistently ran below the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) target of 2 percent. Chronically below-target inflation eventually prompted the Fed in August 2020 to adjust its policy framework to combat this tendency. Not long after, however, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation trends and the Fed’s orientation to them began to reverse. Once it emerged, inflation accelerated throughout 2021 and has remained elevated this year with as yet indeterminate signs of abating.

Report

Redesigning California's Adult Education Funding Model

December 13, 2022 - In this brief, we provide background on adult education funding, assess the current funding model, and offer recommendations to improve it.

Handout

CAL-ACCESS Replacement System

November 29, 2022 - Presented to: Senate Committee on Elections and Constitutional Amendments

Report

The 2023-24 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

November 16, 2022 - This brief provides our annual fiscal outlook for General Fund spending in Medi-Cal. It summarizes our projections, describes the major factors driving our projections, and highlights several uncertainties.

Report

The 2023-24 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges

November 16, 2022 - Each year, the state calculates a “minimum guarantee” for school and community college funding based upon a set of formulas established by Proposition 98 (1988). Based upon recent signs of weakness in the economy, we estimate the guarantee in 2023‑24 is $2.2 billion (2 percent) below the 2022‑23 enacted budget level. Despite this drop, $7.6 billion would be available to provide increases for school and community college programs. In 2023‑24, the available funding could cover a cost‑of‑living adjustment (COLA) of up to 8.38 percent, which is slightly below our estimate of the statutory rate (8.73 percent). Over the next several years, growth in the guarantee and required reserve withdrawals would be just enough to cover the statutory COLA. Given this relatively precarious balance, we outline a few ways the Legislature could create a larger cushion to protect against revenue declines in the future.

Report

The 2023-24 Budget: Considering Inflation's Effects on State Programs

November 16, 2022 - This brief takes a case study approach to examine how elevated inflation has already impacted—and could continue to impact—state spending programs.

Report

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

November 16, 2022 - Our annual Fiscal Outlook publication gives our office’s independent assessment of the California state budget condition for the upcoming fiscal year and over the longer term. In this report, we anticipate the state will have a $24 billion budget problem to solve in the upcoming fiscal year and operating deficits declining from $17 billion to $8 billion over the multiyear period. The goal of this report is to help the Legislature begin crafting the 2023‑24 budget. Our analysis relies on specific assumptions about the future of the state economy, its revenues, and its expenditures. Consequently, our estimates are not definitive, but rather reflect our best guidance to the Legislature based on our professional assessments as of November 2022.

Update (11/22/22): The original version of this report identified a $25 billion—instead of a $24 billion—budget problem, which reflected an error in the way we accounted for student housing grant program funding.

Handout

Recent Funding to Address Teacher Shortages

November 16, 2022 - Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 2 on Education Finance

Handout

Enforcing Workplace Health and Safety Standards

November 15, 2022 - Presented to: Assembly Committee on Labor and Employment

Report

Living Under Smoky Skies—Understanding the Challenges Posed by Wildfire Smoke in California

November 14, 2022 - In this report, we (1) summarize trends in wildfires and associated smoke; (2) review research on the health and other effects of wildfire smoke, including on vulnerable groups; (3) discuss local, state, and federal roles and responsibilities related to smoke, as well as actions that the state currently is undertaking to address it; and (4) provide some guidance to the Legislature as it formulates its approach to addressing smoke in the coming years.