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Report

California's Fiscal Outlook: LAO Projections, 2003-04 Through 2008-09

November 14, 2003 - According to our projections, the state is facing a year-end shortfall of $10.2 billion in 2004-05 assuming the vehicle license fee (VLF) rate increase remains in effect, and substantially more if the rate is rolled back and the state resumes backfill payments to localities. Over the longer term, absent corrective actions, the state faces annual current-law operating deficits that remain over $9 billion through the end of the forecast period—and $14 billion if the VLF rate is rolled back.

Report

California's Fiscal Outlook: LAO Projections, 2002-03 Through 2007-08

November 14, 2002 - For the second year in a row, the state faces a budget problem in excess of $20 billion. Our updated forecast indicates the following. Current Year: California will end the 2002-03 fiscal year with a General Fund deficit of $6.1 billion. Budget Year: The 2003-04 budget faces a cumulative year-end deficit of $21.1 billion, absent corrective actions. However, if California's economic performance continues to lag the shortfall could easily be several billion dollars higher. Beyond the Budget Year: Over the longer term, the state will face annual operating deficits of between roughly $12 billion and $16 billion per year.

Report

California's Fiscal Outlook: LAO Projections, 2001-02 Through 2006-07

November 14, 2001 - California will end 2001-02 with a deficit of $4.5 billion, while the 2002-03 budget year faces a shortfall of $12.4 billion and potentially even more if the recovery we are assuming for next spring is delayed. Annual budget shortfalls will persist well beyond 2002-03 absent corrective actions. Thus substantial ongoing expenditure cuts and/or revenue augmentations are required to bring the budget back into balance.

Report

California's Fiscal Outlook: LAO Projections 2000-01 Through 2005-06

November 15, 2000 - California is in the midst of an extraordinary economic and revenue boom. We project that in 2000-01 the State of California's General Fund will end with a reserve of nearly $6.9 billion—up sharply from the $1.8 billion assumed in June when the budget was adopted. In 2001-02, assuming current-law spending and tax policies, we forecast that revenues would exceed expenditures by $3.4 billion, bringing the cumulative reserve to $10.3 billion. We suggest that the $6.9 billion reserve carried into the budget year from 2000-01 be used primarily for one-time purposes; the $3.4 billion annual operating surplus would be available for ongoing purposes.

Report

California's Fiscal Outlook: LAO Projections 1999-00 to 2004-05

November 17, 1999 - California's fiscal fortunes have again significantly exceeded expectations, due largely to its robust economic performance and the accompanying increases in General Fund revenues. We project that continued revenue growth will trigger all of the vehicle license fee (VLF) reductions previously agreed to, enable full funding of all current-law programs, and produce significant budgetary reserves in the next several years.

Report

The LAO’s Economic and Budget Projections

November 19, 1998 - In striking contrast to the past two years, when strong revenues provided funds for both tax relief and significant spending increases in education and other program areas, our projections indicate that 1999-00 will be a difficult year.

Report

The LAO’s Economic and Budget Projections 1997-98 Through 1999-00

November 20, 1997 - We estimate that the current year will end with a reserve of $769 million, or $657 million more than the 1997-98 Budget Act estimate. We further estimate that the budget will remain in balance in the future, with the reserve rising slightly to $836 million in 1998-99, before declining to $304 million in 1999-00.

Report

The LAO’s Economic and Budget Projections 1996-97 Through 1998-99

November 21, 1996 - This report provides our projections of the General Fund condition for 1996-97 through 1997-98. It includes our independent assessment of the outlook for the economy, demographics, revenues, and expenditures. It is designed to assist the Legislature with its fiscal planning.

Report

The LAO’s Economic and Budget Projections 1995-96 Through 1997-98

November 1, 1995 - The LAO’s Economic and Budget Projections 1995-96 Through 1997-98