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November 20, 2008 - The state’s struggling economy has severely reduced expected revenues. Combined with rising state expenses, we project that the state will need $27.8 billion in budget solutions over the 2008-09 and 2009-10 fiscal years. The state’s revenue collapse is so dramatic and the underlying economic factors are so weak that we forecast huge budget shortfalls through 2013-14 absent corrective action. From 2010-11 through 2013-14, we project annual shortfalls that are consistently in the range of $22 billion. Closing a projected $28 billion budget shortfall will be a monumental task. We believe the Legislature must take major ongoing actions by both reducing base spending and increasing revenues. If the Legislature has any hope of developing a fiscally responsible 2009–10 budget, it must begin laying the groundwork now.
November 14, 2007 - In order to balance the 2008–09 budget, the state will have to adopt nearly $10 billion in solutions. Addressing the state’s current budget problem is even more urgent because we forecast a continuing gap between revenues and expenditures. A plan to permanently address the state’s fiscal troubles must involve a substantial portion of ongoing solutions. This is not only because of the persistent operating deficits projected throughout the forecast, but also because of the downside risks inherent with the economy, General Fund revenue volatility, and a wide range of budgetary uncertainties. Making tough choices now will allow the state to move closer to putting its fiscal woes in the past.
November 15, 2006 - Following a year in which major revenue increases were allocated to education and other state programs, California policymakers will face a much tougher budget in 2007-08. According to our updated forecast, the state’s budget faces operating shortfalls in excess of $5 billion in both 2007-08 and 2008-09, which will require significant actions to eliminate.
November 16, 2005 - The state's budget outlook for 2006-07 and beyond has improved considerably as a result of a major increase in revenues and significant savings adopted in the 2005-06 budget plan. The state, however, still faces major operating deficits in the next several years.
November 17, 2004 - According to our projections, the state is facing a year-end shortfall of $6.7 billion in 2005-06. Over the longer term, absent corrective actions, the state faces persistent annual current-law operating deficits that peak at nearly $10 billion in 2006-07, before narrowing somewhat in subsequent years.
November 14, 2003 - According to our projections, the state is facing a year-end shortfall of $10.2 billion in 2004-05 assuming the vehicle license fee (VLF) rate increase remains in effect, and substantially more if the rate is rolled back and the state resumes backfill payments to localities. Over the longer term, absent corrective actions, the state faces annual current-law operating deficits that remain over $9 billion through the end of the forecast period—and $14 billion if the VLF rate is rolled back.
November 14, 2002 - For the second year in a row, the state faces a budget problem in excess of $20 billion. Our updated forecast indicates the following. Current Year: California will end the 2002-03 fiscal year with a General Fund deficit of $6.1 billion. Budget Year: The 2003-04 budget faces a cumulative year-end deficit of $21.1 billion, absent corrective actions. However, if California's economic performance continues to lag the shortfall could easily be several billion dollars higher. Beyond the Budget Year: Over the longer term, the state will face annual operating deficits of between roughly $12 billion and $16 billion per year.
November 14, 2001 - California will end 2001-02 with a deficit of $4.5 billion, while the 2002-03 budget year faces a shortfall of $12.4 billion and potentially even more if the recovery we are assuming for next spring is delayed. Annual budget shortfalls will persist well beyond 2002-03 absent corrective actions. Thus substantial ongoing expenditure cuts and/or revenue augmentations are required to bring the budget back into balance.
November 15, 2000 - California is in the midst of an extraordinary economic and revenue boom. We project that in 2000-01 the State of California's General Fund will end with a reserve of nearly $6.9 billion—up sharply from the $1.8 billion assumed in June when the budget was adopted. In 2001-02, assuming current-law spending and tax policies, we forecast that revenues would exceed expenditures by $3.4 billion, bringing the cumulative reserve to $10.3 billion. We suggest that the $6.9 billion reserve carried into the budget year from 2000-01 be used primarily for one-time purposes; the $3.4 billion annual operating surplus would be available for ongoing purposes.
November 17, 1999 - California's fiscal fortunes have again significantly exceeded expectations, due largely to its robust economic performance and the accompanying increases in General Fund revenues. We project that continued revenue growth will trigger all of the vehicle license fee (VLF) reductions previously agreed to, enable full funding of all current-law programs, and produce significant budgetary reserves in the next several years.
November 19, 1998 - In striking contrast to the past two years, when strong revenues provided funds for both tax relief and significant spending increases in education and other program areas, our projections indicate that 1999-00 will be a difficult year.
November 20, 1997 - We estimate that the current year will end with a reserve of $769 million, or $657 million more than the 1997-98 Budget Act estimate. We further estimate that the budget will remain in balance in the future, with the reserve rising slightly to $836 million in 1998-99, before declining to $304 million in 1999-00.
November 21, 1996 - This report provides our projections of the General Fund condition for 1996-97 through 1997-98. It includes our independent assessment of the outlook for the economy, demographics, revenues, and expenditures. It is designed to assist the Legislature with its fiscal planning.