Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - Figure  8 shows the state ’s cash cushion in December of each fiscal year from 1996 ‑ 97 t o 2018 ‑19 (a month when the state often reaches its annual cash balance lows). The figure displays month ‑end cash, so the state reached even lower levels in some of these years within the month.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

The 2026-27 Budget: California Competes Extension

Mar 18, 2026 - Changes made to the program in 2018 likely explain much of this trend. Specifically, the 2018 budget package: Removed a requirement that 25  percent of credits be reserved for businesses with less than $2  million in annual revenue.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5162

The 2018-19 Budget: California Hiring Tax Credits

Mar 15, 2018 - Consequently, only about 8  p ercent of the 11, 554 r eservations received that year ultimately resulted in a credit. Given the number of credit reservations made, however, the credit may have played a role in hiring individuals who employers expected to be eligible for the credit but ultimately were not eligible.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3784

The 2026-27 Budget: CDTFA’s Cannabis and Tobacco Programs

Feb 23, 2026 - The Governor proposes $3.3  million of augmentations in 2026 ‑27 and ongoing to address enforcement responsibilities stemming from a new law on hemp ‑derived cannabinoids (Chapter  248 of 2025 [AB  8, Aguiar ‑Curry]).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5132

Assessing Recent Changes to California Competes

Mar 30, 2020 - For 2018 ‑19, a total of $219. 8  m illion was available ($ 180  m illion plus $39. 8  m illion of recaptured credits). GO ‑Biz predetermines a set amount of credits it will award to applicants in each period.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4213

The 2018-19 Budget: The Administration's Proposition 55 Estimates in the May Revision

May 22, 2018 - These are: (1) statutory cost ‑of ‑living adjustments, (2) chaptered legislation, (3) one ‑time expenditures, (4) the full ‑year costs of partial ‑year programs, (5) costs incurred pursuant to constitutional requirements, (6) federal mandates, (7) court ‑ordered mandates, (8) state employee merit salary adjustments, and (9) state agency operating expense and equipment cost adjustments to reflect price increases.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3844

Fixing Unemployment Insurance

Dec 2, 2024 - Figure  8 shows how this would play out if contributions and benefits continue to track with historical trends over the next two decades. As the figure shows, we do not expect the state to achieve solvency without the federal surcharge.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4943

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Revenue Outlook

May 12, 2018 - Under our economic scenario, the S &P 500 drops by about 8 percent in 2019. Accordingly, estimated net capital gains decrease to about $135 billion in 2019 and remain around that level through 2022. Corporation Tax (CT) Revenues Up Significantly in 2017-18.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3830