Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - Figure  3 shows estimates of tax revenue losses associated with each of the last three recessions: the recession of the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession in the early 2000s, and the financial crisis and Great Recession beginning in 2008.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - After a period of relative calm in the mid ‑ and late ‑1990s, California faced another series of years with acute budget problems following the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession. Although the dot ‑com bust was relatively mild in economic terms, it hit the California budget —which is particularly reliant on the Bay Area ’s technology sector —especially hard.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

The 2026-27 Budget: California Competes Extension

Mar 18, 2026 - Figure  3 shows how credits have been allocated across sectors over the last five years. Of the $1.2  billion in awards made between 2021 and 2025, around $650  million, or over half, has been allocated to businesses in advanced manufacturing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5162

Fixing Unemployment Insurance

Dec 2, 2024 - Figure  8 shows how this would play out if contributions and benefits continue to track with historical trends over the next two decades. As the figure shows, we do not expect the state to achieve solvency without the federal surcharge.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4943

The 2026-27 Budget: CDTFA’s Cannabis and Tobacco Programs

Feb 23, 2026 - January budget documents show that CDTFA ’s spending on the Cannabis Tax Program has come not just from the Cannabis Tax Fund, but also from the General Fund. For example, in 2024 ‑25, $13.1  million of CDTFA ’s Cannabis Tax Program spending came from the Cannabis Tax Fund, while $3.1  million came from the General Fund.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5132

The 2017-18 Budget: Governor's Gann Limit Proposal

Mar 2, 2017 - Calculating Year‑to‑Year Changes in the SAL Figure  3 shows the annual SAL calculations for the upcoming fiscal year. Step 1 shows the calculation of the SAL, step 2 shows the calculation of appropriations subject to the limit, and step  3 shows the determination of whether the state has excess revenues.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3596

Updating the California Necessities Index

Aug 14, 2025 - In particular, the fact that the BLS has discontinued publishing statistics for the household fuels and other utilities category for metropoli tan areas shows that they have found it difficult to collect a sufficient sample of prices in this category.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5065

Local Sales Tax Rebates in 2023-24

Sep 16, 2025 - Figure  5 shows that the racial and ethnic composition of rebate-paying jurisdictions is substantially different from other parts of the state. Jurisdictions that paid $1 to $20 per resident have substantially more Latino residents and fewer white residents than the state as a whole.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5074

The 2025-26 Budget: California’s Film Tax Credit

Feb 28, 2025 - Figure  7 shows the types of productions that were awarded tax credits. The most notable change is an increase in the share of credits awarded to non ‑relocating TV shows from 51  percent in the first decade of the program to 59  percent in the credits most recent iteration starting in 2020, with a corresponding decrease in credit allocations for feature films.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5000