Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - To put this in more concrete but very rough terms, a moderate recession, like the dot ‑com bust, could lead to a $ 40  b illion budget problem. A more mild recession might result in a $ 20  b illion budget problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - After a period of relative calm in the mid ‑ and late ‑1990s, California faced another series of years with acute budget problems following the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession. Although the dot ‑com bust was relatively mild in economic terms, it hit the California budget —which is particularly reliant on the Bay Area ’s technology sector —especially hard.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2023 - These formulas include spending on schools and community colleges (under Proposition  98 [1988]), as well as debt payments and reserve deposits (under the rules of Proposition  2  [2014]). If the Legislature adopts the administration ’s revenue estimates —and does not solve the additional budget problem we identify above —we anticipate there will be a revenue shortfall in 2023 ‑24.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4772

The 2026-27 Budget: CDTFA’s Cannabis and Tobacco Programs

Feb 23, 2026 - State Faces Significant Cannabis and Tobacco Compliance Problems. The licensed cannabis industry ’s ongoing struggle to compete with the illicit cannabis market is widely recognized. Tobacco compliance has received less attention, but some data suggest that this also has become a significant problem under the flavor ban.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5132

Long-term Capacity for Debt Payments Under Proposition 2

Dec 21, 2017 - As one of the many actions taken in the 2000s to address its budget problems, the state loaned amounts to the General Fund from other state accounts known as special funds. These funds included certain transportation-related accounts.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3727

Fixing Unemployment Insurance

Dec 2, 2024 - During the phase ‑in period, the state also entered the dot ‑com recession. These two cost pressures absorbed the remaining flexibility in the state ’s UI tax system. As  shown in Figure  4 , the state began this period in Schedule C but quickly moved to Schedule F+, the highest tax schedule, where it has remained since.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4943

The 2018-19 Budget: The Administration’s Proposition 55 Estimates

Mar 1, 2018 - In particular, the administration ( 1)  r educes the amount of available revenues by all BSA deposits, rather than just required deposits, reducing the amount of available revenues, and ( 2)  m akes a variety of choices that result in a larger workload budget, which reduces the available surplus under the calculation.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3765

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

The 2020-21 Budget: Taxation of E-Cigarettes

Feb 24, 2020 - Ideally, this would mean depositing the revenue into the General Fund. If, however, the Legislature prefers to deposit the revenue into a special fund, we view the Governor ’s proposed approach much more favorably than a restrictive, formulaic approach.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4171

The 2025-26 Budget: Update on Implementation of New Firearm and Ammunition Tax

Feb 19, 2025 - For example, Chapter  231 specifies that the first $75  million deposited in the GVPSS Fund be designated for the California Violence Intervention and Prevention (CalVIP) Grant Program —which provides competitive grants for violence prevention activities.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4970