Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - The figure below shows revenue losses over the past three recessions —which have totaled in the tens of billions of dollars over multiyear periods. The Great Recession was the most severe. However, even the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, which in economic terms was more moderate, led to over $ 80  b illion in losses.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - After a period of relative calm in the mid ‑ and late ‑1990s, California faced another series of years with acute budget problems following the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession. Although the dot ‑com bust was relatively mild in economic terms, it hit the California budget —which is particularly reliant on the Bay Area ’s technology sector —especially hard.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

The 2026-27 Budget: California Competes Extension

Mar 18, 2026 - On the other hand, if GO-Biz chose to allocate a large fraction of the current credit pool over a short period, it would sharply increase the fiscal cost of the program over the next several years as credits are claimed.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5162

Fixing Unemployment Insurance

Dec 2, 2024 - During the phase ‑in period, the state also entered the dot ‑com recession. These two cost pressures absorbed the remaining flexibility in the state ’s UI tax system. As  shown in Figure  4 , the state began this period in Schedule C but quickly moved to Schedule F+, the highest tax schedule, where it has remained since.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4943

The 2017-18 Budget: Governor's Gann Limit Proposal

Mar 2, 2017 - As revenues surged during the dot ‑com boom of the late 1990s, however, the state approached the limit. The state had excess revenues in 1999 ‑00, but because appropriations were under the limit in 2000 ‑01, additional Proposition  98 spending and taxpayer rebates were not required.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3596

Local Sales Tax Rebates in 2023-24

Sep 16, 2025 - The average unemployment rate in jurisdictions that paid over $20 per resident is noticeably l ower than the statewide average. Racial/Ethnic Composition of Rebate-Paying Jurisdictions Noticeably Different From Statewide Average.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5074

The 2025-26 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Oct 16, 2025 - This is a net increase of $5  million (3  percent) over the revised 2024-25 level. (This does not reflect some adjustments related to Control Sections 4.05 and 4.12 of the 2024-25 and 2025-26 budgets.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5081

Updating the California Necessities Index

Aug 14, 2025 - Without this, the new measure could be historically similar to the CNI but lead to significantly higher or lower benefit levels over time. Fidelity to Original Concept. We assess each proposed measure on whether it adheres to the concept of the current formula.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5065

The 2025-26 Budget: California’s Film Tax Credit

Feb 28, 2025 - As shown in Figure 1, California’s motion picture production workforce is by far the largest in the United States, over 2.5 times the size of its largest competitor (New York), and has held fairly steady in size over the last two decades.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5000