Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - To put this in more concrete but very rough terms, a moderate recession, like the dot ‑com bust, could lead to a $ 40  b illion budget problem. A more mild recession might result in a $ 20  b illion budget problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - “consensus scenario. ” The LAO develops the California portions of the forecast based on this scenario. b Employer survey data. Figure  2, at the end of this post, lists the major economic variables under our new moderate growth scenario through 2022.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - After a period of relative calm in the mid ‑ and late ‑1990s, California faced another series of years with acute budget problems following the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession. Although the dot ‑com bust was relatively mild in economic terms, it hit the California budget —which is particularly reliant on the Bay Area ’s technology sector —especially hard.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

Updating the California Necessities Index

Aug 14, 2025 - Therefore, any measure that requires statistics on the prices of a small set of goods in metropolitan areas —which includes options A, B, and C —may be at higher risk to future BLS publication changes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5065

The 2017-18 Budget: Governor's Gann Limit Proposal

Mar 2, 2017 - As revenues surged during the dot ‑com boom of the late 1990s, however, the state approached the limit. The state had excess revenues in 1999 ‑00, but because appropriations were under the limit in 2000 ‑01, additional Proposition  98 spending and taxpayer rebates were not required.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3596

Overview of Diversity Efforts in the Film Tax Credit Program

May 1, 2025 - Chapter  114 of 2021 (S B  144 , Portantino) required our office to issue a report summarizing the workforce diversity information collected by the California Film Commission (CFC) and evaluate the effectiveness of the tax credit for increasing diversity.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5036

Fixing Unemployment Insurance

Dec 2, 2024 - During the phase ‑in period, the state also entered the dot ‑com recession. These two cost pressures absorbed the remaining flexibility in the state ’s UI tax system. As  shown in Figure  4 , the state began this period in Schedule C but quickly moved to Schedule F+, the highest tax schedule, where it has remained since.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4943

The 2020-21 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2020 - Under the Governor ’s proposed budget, the state would end 2020 ‑21 with $20. 5  b illion in total reserves. This represents an increase of $1. 7  b illion from the 2019 ‑ 20 e nacted reserve level of $18. 8  b illion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4135

The 2018-19 Budget: California’s New Tax Departments

Apr 4, 2018 - In September 2017, the Governor signed A B  131 , which further clarified some of the changes made by A B  102 . Tax Administration CDTFA. Under the new laws, CDTFA administers most of the tax and fee programs formerly administered by BOE.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3796

The 2022-23 Budget: Federal Tax Conformity for Federal Business Assistance

Jan 26, 2022 - Chapter  39 of 2020 (A B  1577 , Burke) and Chapter  17 of 2021 (A B  80 , Burke) partially conformed state tax laws to the federal treatment of forgiven PPP loans and EIDL advance grants. Taxpayers that are publicly traded companies or did not have at least a 25  percent reduction in gross receipts are excluded from this provision.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4501