The 2015-16 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget [Publication Details]

Jan 13, 2015 - We conclude the state likely will collect more tax revenue in 2014-15 than the administration now estimates. Barring a sustained stock market drop, an additional 2014-15 revenue gain of $1 billion to $2 billion seems likely in addition to the Governor's budget projection.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/3157

A History of California’s Budget Reserves

Mar 24, 2017 - Like revenues, some of these changes can occur in tandem with economic fluctuations. For example, during periods of recession, the unemployment rate tends to increase, which can result in more people enrolling in means-tested programs like Medi-Cal.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3630

LAO Multiyear State Budget Outlook

May 19, 2017 - The top part of each bar shows our projection of the annual Budget Stabilization Account (BSA) deposit. The bottom part of each bar shows the annual operating surplus (the amount by which projected revenues exceed expenditures).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3675

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Multiyear State Budget Outlook

May 17, 2018 - Because some major bargaining agreements expire early in the outlook period, these different assumptions have a significant effect on our bottom-line numbers. LAO Comments Uncertainties in the Longer-Term Outlook.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3843

LAO Multiyear State Budget Outlook

May 20, 2016 - Due to these and other factors, relative to the administration, most of the state’s higher revenues under our growth scenario provide bottom line benefit to the General Fund in 2018-19 and 2019-20. LAO Comments Operating Surpluses Have Narrowed Compared to Recent Outlooks.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3472

The 2022-23 Budget: State Appropriations Limit Implications

Mar 30, 2022 - However, revenues could differ substantially from this median (dotted line in Figure 1)—either higher or lower. Figure 1 shows the range of likely outcomes. The most likely outcomes are shown in the darker shaded area.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4583

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 16, 2022 - Given the federal administration committed to providing states 60 days ’ notice regarding the end of the public health emergency, the PHE is likely to remain in place after January 2023. We estimate a one ‑quarter extension results in lower General Fund costs of about $450   million —improving the budget bottom line condition by that amount (this figure is subject to uncertainty).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4646

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - Further, the state faces significant deficits in the coming years, likely necessitating difficult decisions in the future, such as reductions to core services and/or revenue increases. Crafting the Legislature ’s Budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - First, the budget includes about ten budget solutions —proposals that create budget capacity, improving the budget ’s bottom line —and they total around $9  billion. Second, the Governor ’s budget includes about 60 discretionary spending proposals —proposals that use budget capacity, eroding the budget ’s bottom line —and these total about $600  million.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - Our Revenue Estimates Consistent With $2.5  Billion Upgrade to Budget Bottom Line Compared to January. Our recent revenue post suggests an improvement in revenues of around $5 billion relative to the Governor’s budget estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133