The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Instead, much of the bounce appears to be tied to special forms of pay for high ‑income workers, such as bonuses and stock  compensation. Booming Stock Market Driving Income Growth. The recent run ‑up in the stock market, which appears tied to optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, is a primary driver of the rapid growth in pay to high ‑income workers.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - The reason for the reduction is the recent voter approval of Proposition  35 (2024), which requires the state to spend less MCO tax money on offsetting General Fund spending and more money on provider rate increases.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - This change need not occur immediately as it will take time for the state to build up reserves through future economic cycles. As such, we suggest the Legislature ask the voters to authorize a scheduled, phased‑in increase: 20 percent to take effect immediately after the next statewide election, 25 percent in 2030, and increasing by 5 percent every five years until the cap reaches a maximum of 50 percent in 2055.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Revenues Lower by About $5   Billion. The May Revision downgrades the administration ’s revenue estimates by $5  billion. Revenues for prior and current years are up a total of $6  billion, primarily reflecting stronger ‑than ‑expect personal income tax collections which are running $4  billion ahead of prior projections as of April.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Sep 6, 2024 - Second, it notably reduces how much tax revenue is used for augmentations, instead using more money to help offset General Fund spending ($3.5  billion through 2024 ‑25 and $7.7  billion through 2026 ‑27).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4922

The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 27, 2021 - Under the June 2021 b udget plan, the total required deposit is $4. 5 b illion —$1. 9 b illion in 2020 ‑21 and $2. 6 b illion in 2021 ‑22. The largest discretionary allocation of Proposition 98 funding is $12. 5 b illion to pay down the deferrals the state adopted as part of the June 2020 b udget plan.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4448

The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2025 - Specifically, our revenue estimates exceed the administration ’s estimates by $5  billion to $7  billion annually from 2026-27 to 2028-29 —differences we consider very minor given the size of the budget and uncertainty in revenue forecasting.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5052

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - Under our definition, a spending reduction occurs when the Governor proposes the state spend less money than what has been established under current law or policy. More colloquially, these are spending cuts.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2020-21 Budget: Proposition 2 Debt Payment Proposals

Mar 10, 2020 - Figure 5 shows how our recommendation could work. For example, suppose in some year CalSTRS experiences an annual return of 3  p ercent —which is lower than the assumed rate of 7  p ercent. To make up for this actuarial loss, the board would need to increase the state ’s rate by approximately 2  p ercent of pay, but under law could only raise the rate by 0. 5  p ercent of pay each year over four years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4196

The 2024-25 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2024 - Under our definition, a spending reduction occurs when the Governor proposes that the state spend less money than what has been established under current law or policy. More colloquially, these are spending cuts.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4902