The 2025-26 Budget: Understanding Recent Increases in the Medi-Cal Senior Caseload

Mar 6, 2025 - In the paragraphs that follow, we provide our analysis that results in ou r estimate of at least 165,000 seniors being added due to eligibility expansions since 2020. (As a consequence of this estimate, it follows naturally that we estimate up to 60,000  seniors being added due to the effects of continuous coverage, the unwinding, and unwinding flexibilities, for a total increase of 225,000 seniors due to policy changes.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5010

The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - The second is an increase in the frequency of required eligibility determinations from every 12 months to every 6 months. Both changes likely will notably reduce the number of childless adults enrolled in Medi ‑Cal.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5092

Considering Medi-Cal in the Midst of a Changing Fiscal and Policy Landscape

Oct 24, 2025 - …But Potentially With Added Complexity. Adding more flexibilities also could come with the potential downside of more complexity for beneficiaries and counties. For example, exempting high unemployment counties from work requirements could create more volatility.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5083

The 2026-27 Budget: Department of Developmental Services

Mar 13, 2026 - The department stated that its budget projections for 2026 ‑27 do not incorporate any potential added costs due to the changes in H.R 1. Will the department be able to determine whether its costs increase in the future due to H.R. 1?
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5157

The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Analysis

Mar 2, 2026 - One possible reason for our higher estimate is that our model reflects not only disenrollment among current enrollees, but also reduced enrollment flows over time and a persistent risk of disenrollment among eligible individuals due to added administrative burden.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5146

The 2025-26 California Spending Plan: Health

Oct 16, 2025 - Under the spending plan, General Fund spending for the Department of State Hospitals (DSH) is $2.9  billion in 2025-26, a decrease of $166  million (about 6  percent) from the revised 2024-25 expenditure estimate.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5075

The 2021-22 Budget: Analysis of the Medi-Cal Budget

Feb 16, 2021 - Governor ’s budget estimates that caseload grew by 155, 000 e nrollees per month over the second half of 2020. The administration assumes this growth rate increases to 200,000 additional enrollees per month in January 2021, and that new enrollees will be added to the Medi ‑Cal caseload at that higher rate for the duration of 2021, with caseload peaking at more than 16  m illion in December 2021.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4373

Mental Health Services Act: Revenue Volatility and the Governor’s Proposal to Reduce Allowable County Reserves

Jul 13, 2023 - For example, in 2016-17, PIT revenue grew by almost 6  percent while MHSA revenue declined by 6  percent. Measuring Revenue Volatility. In assessing the volatility of a data series, looking at the year-to-year changes in the data is important.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4780

The 2025-26 Budget: Medi-Cal Pharmacy Spending

Apr 3, 2025 - Accordingly, we downloaded California’s drug utilization data from the first quarter of 2018 through the second quarter of 2024 (the latest quarter available at the time of our analysis). Rebates —Federal Financial Management Reports.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5026

The 2023-24 California Spending Plan: Health

Oct 23, 2023 - Second, the budget supports certain behavioral health initiatives in 2023-24 using MHSF instead of General Fund. Figure 6 Health Care Workforce Budget Solutions at HCAI General Fund (In Millions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4810