Considering Medi-Cal in the Midst of a Changing Fiscal and Policy Landscape

Oct 24, 2025 - …But Potentially With Added Complexity. Adding more flexibilities also could come with the potential downside of more complexity for beneficiaries and counties. For example, exempting high unemployment counties from work requirements could create more volatility.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5083

Mental Health Services Act: Revenue Volatility and the Governor’s Proposal to Reduce Allowable County Reserves

Jul 13, 2023 - One way to measure the variability in a data series is average deviation (AD). AD summarizes —for a given time period —how many percentage points the data in a series deviate from the average growth rate.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4780

The 2026-27 Budget: Department of Developmental Services

Mar 13, 2026 - As a budget solution, the 2025 ‑26 Budget Act added three criteria that providers must satisfy to be eligible to earn a quality payment equal to 10   percent of the rate model beginning in July  2026 (in addition, providers would still need to meet quality benchmarks to earn the additional payment, as described next).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5157

The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Analysis

Mar 2, 2026 - One possible reason for our higher estimate is that our model reflects not only disenrollment among current enrollees, but also reduced enrollment flows over time and a persistent risk of disenrollment among eligible individuals due to added administrative burden.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5146

Building California’s Behavioral Health Infrastructure: Progress Update and Opportunities for the Proposition 1 Bond

Feb 5, 2025 - Building California’s Behavioral Health Infrastructure: Progress Update and Opportunities for the Proposition 1 Bond Executive Summary Program Is Building Wide Variety of Much Needed Behavioral Health Infrastructure.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4954

The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Next, we summarize the key drivers of our outlook. We then conclude with risks and uncertainties to our outlook estimates. Background Medi ‑Cal Is a Key Part of State Budget. Medi ‑Cal is a sizable federal ‑state program, covering health care for nearly 15  million low ‑income people .
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5092

The 2021-22 Budget: Assessment of CalHEERS Dashboard

Mar 25, 2021 - Any additional issues that arise because of a CalHEERS release (such as a system defect caused by the addition of a new functionality) are added to the dashboard. While the majority of issues are targeted to be addressed in CalHEERS releases over the next 24 m onths (informing the 24 ‑month CalHEERS roadmap), some issues are scheduled to be addressed in a 2024 r elease once the state migrates from its current SAWS to a single system called the CalSAWS.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4408

Enhancing Federal Financial Participation for Consumers Served by the Department of Developmental Services

Nov 9, 2021 - Consequently, the net General Fund costs would be $ 46 m illion, or about $6,600 for each child added (based on data from 2019 ‑20). Importantly, this cost estimate does not include administrative costs to increase enrollment, which are discussed in the next section.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4471

The 2024-25 Budget: Medi-Cal Analysis

Feb 14, 2024 - Absent corrective measures, the state likely will not have enough budget capacity to fund all of its ongoing commitments over the next few years. Were fiscal constraints to persist in the future, and were the next version of the MCO tax to be much smaller than the current one, the Legislature could face pressure to pull back some of the augmentations in the MCO tax pack age and reverse some payment changes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4838

The 2025-26 Budget: Understanding Recent Increases in the Medi-Cal Senior Caseload

Mar 6, 2025 - In the paragraphs that follow, we provide our analysis that results in ou r estimate of at least 165,000 seniors being added due to eligibility expansions since 2020. (As a consequence of this estimate, it follows naturally that we estimate up to 60,000  seniors being added due to the effects of continuous coverage, the unwinding, and unwinding flexibilities, for a total increase of 225,000 seniors due to policy changes.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5010